Dow recovers as EUR/JPY drops, US natural gas futures prices rise

​​​Macro update

​Asian markets tumble:

Regional equities fell sharply as investors priced in the risk that the Middle East conflict could trigger an energy shock and delay interest-rate cuts, with MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan down 4.2% and South Korea’s KOSPI plunging more than 11%.

​Chip stocks lead the sell-off:

High-beta technology shares bore the brunt of the decline as investors rapidly reduced risk exposure, with analysts describing the move as broad de-risking and momentum unwinding rather than a structural collapse.

​Oil surge fuels inflation concerns:

Brent crude oil rose to around $82 a barrel after strikes on Iran disrupted energy exports and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key corridor for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments.

​Safe havens attract demand:

Gold climbed more than 1% to above $5150 an ounce as investors sought protection from geopolitical risk, although recent volatility suggests deleveraging and margin calls are also influencing precious metals.

​Dollar strengthens as euro weakens:

The US dollar hovered near a three-month high while the euro softened amid fears Europe could face a significant energy shock, with analysts warning higher fuel costs may complicate the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy outlook.

​Global equities retreat:

Wall Street ended lower overnight, with the S&P 500 down 0.9% and the Nasdaq 100 falling 1%, as higher oil prices and escalating tensions raised concerns inflation could remain elevated for longer.

​Dow Jones tries to bounce back

​The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a sharp drop to 47,627 before attempting to recover on Tuesday, mitigating most of its heavy intraday losses and closing at 48,501. In doing so the index formed a 'hammer' which may mean that, for the next few days at least, the worst of the decline may have been seen.

​Support may be found between the 20 to 30 January lows at 48,460 - 48,428 and minor resistance sits between the 5 to 23 February 48,732 - 48,829 lows.

​Short-term outlook:

Neutral while above the 3 March 47,627 low.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral while above the 3 March 47,627 low.

Dow Jones daily candlestick chart

​EUR/JPY slips

EUR/JPY is back under pressure and may revisit the ¥182.00 region, having recovered from there on Tuesday. A fall through the late January ¥181.79 low would likely engage the February trough at ¥180.81.

​Minor resistance may be spotted around the 24 December ¥183.30 low.

​Short-term outlook:

Bearish while below the 2 March high at  ¥184.69.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral with a bearish bias while above the 12 February low at ¥180.81 but below the ¥186.87 January peak.

EUR/JPY daily candlestick chart

​US natural gas futures bounce off key support

​US natural gas futures have recovered from last week's 253.3 low, near the early September 2025 trough, and managed to rise above their 23 February 289.9 high to a two-week high.

​If overcome, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 315.6 may be reached.

​Support sits between the 15 January-to-24 February lows at 272.5 - 265.3.

​Short-term outlook:

Bullish while above the 24 February low at 265.3.

​Medium-term outlook:

Neutral with a bearish slant while below the 6 February high at 332.4.

US natural gas daily candlestick chart