DAX 40 rises as AUD/USD and copper price stabilise

Macro update

Asian equities extend their rally to fresh highs: Japan's Nikkei climbed above the 71,000 mark for the first time, while South Korea's KOSPI reached a record 9,000.68, led by strong gains in semiconductor and AI-related stocks across the region.

Oil prices continue to weaken on improving supply prospects: Brent crude fell to around $77.70 a barrel and WTI eased to roughly $74.40, marking three-month lows as the interim US-Iran agreement fuelled expectations of increased Iranian exports and the resumption of unrestricted shipping through the Straits of Hormuz.

US and Iran formalise interim peace agreement: The two countries signed a 14-point memorandum extending the April ceasefire by 60 days, with plans to restore full capacity through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, although President Trump warned military action could resume if Iran failed to meet its obligations.

Dollar remains near a two-month high: The US currency held close to its strongest level since late March after the Federal Reserve's hawkish pause increased expectations of a December interest rate hike to 85%, although lower oil prices and improving risk sentiment capped further gains.

Yen weakens further as intervention concerns intensify: The Japanese currency slipped to its lowest level since 2024 at around ¥160.79 per dollar, prompting renewed warnings from Tokyo, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara reiterating that authorities stand ready to intervene if necessary.

Bank of England expected to leave rates unchanged: The Bank of England is widely anticipated to keep its policy rate at 3.75% later on Thursday, with investors focusing on policymakers' assessment of the inflation outlook in the wake of the Iran ceasefire.

DAX 40 under pressure

The DAX 40 has been retreating over the past couple of weeks but is trying to find interim support around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,179.

In case of further slips being seen, the late April-to-May lows at 23,797-to-23,716 may be revisited.

For a bullish reversal to be seen, a rise and daily chart close above Wednesday's high at 24,517 would need to unfold.

Short-term outlook: bearish while trading below the 10 June high at 24,517

Medium-term outlook: neutral while above the 30 April low at 23,716 but below the 25,438 May peak

DAX 40  daily candlestick chart

AUD/USD bounces off one-month low

AUD/USD's renewed slide has so far taken it to $0.6995, close to last week's one-month low at $0.6979, before recovering. While these levels hold, an attempt at overcoming Monday's high at $0.7088 may be undertaken. If overcome, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.7127 may be revisited.

Were a slip through support at $0.6995-to-$0.6979 to be seen, though, the early March low at $0.6945 may be reached instead.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 15 June high at $0.7088

Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the $0.7277 May peak and above the 30 March $0.6834 low 

AUD/USD daily candlestick chart

Copper price consolidates

Copper's retracement from its recent highs at $6.5006-to-$6.5164 has taken the metal to Wednesday's $6.2854 low, above which the market tries to stabilise. Were this level to give way, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and March-to-June support line at $6.2225-to-$6.2218 would likely be reached.

Were a rise above the recent high at $6.5164 to be seen instead, the May-to-early June highs at $6.6328-to-$6.6367 would likely be back in the firing line.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 14 June high at $6.5146

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish undertone while trading above the 19 May $6.0806 low

Copper daily candlestick chart