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Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

Both gold and crude are at crucial crossroads, with potential reversals in play. Which way will they go?

Oil rig at sea
Source: Bloomberg

Gold drops back below $1200, but for how long?

Gold has dropped back below the crucial $1200 mark overnight, following on from a near 7% rally over the past month. Given the importance of that level, there is a chance we could see some selling come into play, with yesterday’s daily candle closing out as a shooting star.

For this bearish sentiment to have any wider relevance, we would need to see $1177 taken out, which remains some way from current price. As such, an hourly close above $1207 would be required for the bullish sentiment to persist. Until then, it may be prudent to be thankful for the gains we have seen already over the week and wait for confirmation that $1200 has truly been overcome.

Brent pauses following recent gains

Brent crude has rallied higher in the wake of Donald Trump’s press conference, following a move back into the long-term inverse head and shoulders neckline (weekly timeframe). Price has managed to hold up above that $53.00 level, providing a clue that we could be in for some sort of resurgence.

However, for that to be confirmed, we would need to see $57.61 taken out. For now, price is moving into the 76.4% region, which considering the downtrend in play in 2017 so far, could provide an interesting short opportunity. Given the long-term importance of this $53.00-54.30 support zone, it makes sense to await a break through $57.61 to below $53.00.

WTI weakening from Fibonacci resistance

WTI is similarly consolidating following a move into the 76.4% retracement. Again, the message is the same in that we have a major support level at $51.24 to the downside which needs to be taken out for a bearish view to come into play.

As such, either a break above $53.81 or below $51.24 would be required to provide the next outlook for WTI. 

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