A2 Milk HY 2026 earnings preview: spotlight on China's growth prospects

When will A2M report its latest earnings?

A2 Milk (ASX: A2M) is scheduled to report its results for the half-year (HY) ending 31 December 2025 on Monday, 16 February 2026.

Company backdrop

A2M is a premium dairy nutrition company that has carved out a unique niche in the global market. Unlike standard milk, which contains both A1 and A2 beta-casein proteins, A2M's products are sourced from cows selected to produce only the A2 protein type, marketed as being easier to digest. The company focuses primarily on infant formula, its 'white gold', targeting the lucrative Chinese market, alongside liquid milk sales in Australia and the United States (US).

A2M heads into this report riding strong momentum. Its financial year (FY) 2025 full-year results, released in August 2025, marked a significant recovery from the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic.

FY 2025 highlights

• Revenue growth: total revenue climbed 13.5% to NZ$1.90 billion, driven by double-digit growth in its core infant nutrition and liquid milk segments
• Profit surge: net profit after tax (NPAT) jumped 21.1% to NZ$203 million, highlighting the company's operational leverage and effective cost management as it scaled top-line sales
• EBITDA strength: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 17.1% to NZ$274 million, reflecting improved margins
• Dividend: A2M declared its first-ever dividend, signalling management's confidence that the balance sheet has matured from a 'high-growth startup' to a cash-generating powerhouse.

The market reaction and investor sentiment:

The market reaction in August was enthusiastic. Investors celebrated the maiden dividend and double-digit profit growth, viewing it as validation of chief executive officer (CEO) David Bortolussi's strategy to stabilise the business and diversify beyond the 'daigou' (personal shopper) trade.

However, since the August peak of $9.78, the share price has drifted lower due to broader headwinds affecting consumer staples, and ongoing concerns about China's economic slowdown. Investors are currently in a 'show me' mood: they acknowledge A2M's strong FY 2025, but are eager to see if that momentum can be sustained amid falling birth rates in China and intense competition.

A2M Group performance

HY 2026 earnings expectations

As we approach the HY 2026 release, the market is eager for evidence that A2M is continuing to perform well in the challenging China market. The key question is whether the company can maintain its market share gains while controlling marketing costs.

Key financials (analyst estimates):

• Revenue: ~NZ$961 million (up from NZ$893 million in the prior corresponding period)
• Net profit after tax: ~NZ$105 million (up from NZ$91.73 million in the prior corresponding period)

A2M annual revenue trend

Key focus areas

China infant formula

This is the main focus. Investors will scrutinise the sales numbers to see if A2M continues to grow its 'Platinum' label sales despite an overall market contraction. Any weakness here could be severely punished.

US profitability

The US liquid milk division has historically been a loss-maker or marginally profitable. The market wants clear signs that this segment is finally contributing meaningfully to the bottom line.

Supply chain and margins

With recent manufacturing acquisitions, investors will look for updates on supply chain efficiencies. Are these new assets improving gross margins, or are they adding operational complexity and cost?

Guidance update

In August, A2M provided a cautiously optimistic outlook for 'mid-single-digit' revenue growth in FY 2026. Reaffirming this target in a tough economic climate would be a significant win.

A2M technical analysis

Having peaked near $9.78 following its August earnings release, A2M shares have since pulled back to a low of $8.00. This move appears corrective within the broader context.

If the A2M share price holds above the crucial $8.00 level, a positive earnings report could trigger a retest of the recent $9.78 high. Conversely, if the earnings disappoint, especially in terms of China sales, a sustained break below $8.00 could see the price decline initially towards a strong support band from $7.40 to $7.10. This critical zone includes the May 2024 high and the July 2025 low.

A2M weekly candlestick chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 11 February 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}