WTI trades in 1-month high as EUR/USD, FTSE 100 slip
Technical analysis of WTI as it trades in one-month highs while EUR/USD and the FTSE 100 slide.
Macro update
Oil prices extend rally: WTI climbed to $116.56 as supply concerns intensified, with prices now up more than 50% since the Iran war began.
Hormuz shutdown drives risk: The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of global oil flows, has severely disrupted exports and tightened global supply.
Trump deadline approaches: Markets are focused on a US-imposed deadline for Iran to reopen the strait, with threats of strikes on infrastructure increasing escalation risks.
Diplomacy stalls: Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent end to the conflict, leaving negotiations fragile and unresolved.
Markets turn cautious: Equities were mixed and the dollar remained near recent highs as investors adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the deadline.
Inflation and supply concerns intensify: Rising energy prices are fuelling stagflation fears, widening crude premiums and forcing refiners to seek alternative sources of supply.
FTSE 100 back under pressure
The FTSE 100 is back in risk-off territory as markets await the outcome of US President Trump's latest Iran ultimatum. The index is seen coming off the 10,500 region - a one-month high - and may slip back towards the 10,350 zone or lower in the course of this week while Tuesday's intraday high at 10,514 caps.
The area around the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 10,359 may act as support, ahead of the more significant 2 April low at 10,252.
Short-term outlook: toppish while below 10,514, targeting the 10,350 region
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 30 March low at 9,856
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD range trades in low volatility
EUR/USD is expected to continue to sideways trade above its 23 March low at $1.1485 and its $1.1648 mid-March high.
Minor support sits at Monday's $1.1506 low, below which lies the 23 March low at $1.1485. Failure there would likely engage the 19 March low at $1.1443, below which lie the mid-March low at $1.1411 and the $1.1392 August 2025 low.
While the $1.1506 level holds, a recovery towards Monday's $1.1571 high and then the $1.1600 region may still ensue.
Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while below the 17-20 March highs and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.1648-to-$1.1672
Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the $1.1831 late February high, potentially targeting the $1.1392 August 2025 low
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI trades in one-month high
Heightened tensions in the US-Israel-Iran conflict has pushed the price of crude to around $116 per barrel mark, close to its March peak at $119.48 which remains in sight. This will likely be the case while WTI stays above its 6 April low at $108.89 on a daily chart closing basis.
Were a bearish reversal to take the price of WTI to below $108.89, the late March high at $106.86 would probably be eyed, together with the mid-March highs at $102.44-to-$101.67.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the $108.89
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 1 April low at $96.50
WTI daily candlestick chart
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