S&P 500 bounces off uptrend line as USD/JPY slips and silver price rises
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 as it bounces off its 2025 uptrend line, as USD/JPY slips and the silver price rises.
Macro update
Wall Street rebounds:
US equities recovered as dip-buyers stepped in following Tuesday’s tech-led sell-off.
Data offers support:
Stronger-than-expected private payrolls and a resilient services report boosted confidence, helping offset uncertainty caused by the ongoing government shutdown.
Earnings underpin sentiment:
Solid results from McDonald’s, Amgen, and Match Group lifted markets, though Super Micro tumbled and Bank of America edged lower.
Valuation concerns linger:
Corporate executives cautioned that artificial intelligence (AI) and tech valuations remain elevated; while the latest pullback is viewed as healthy, a 10-15% correction risk persists.
Rates and currency moves:
Treasury yields inched higher and the US dollar held near five-month highs as traders reduced bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December.
Global market tone:
Asian stocks rebounded and European markets stabilised overnight, while attention turns to the Bank of England (BoE), with markets pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of a surprise rate cut.
S&P 500 bounces off uptrend line
The S&P 500 stemmed its recent sell-off by bouncing off its April-to-November uptrend line at 6,764 on Wednesday.
Were it to be slid through, a further decline towards the 22 September 6,698 high would likely ensue.
If, however, an advance above Wednesday's high at 6,829 were to occur, the 6,850 region would be back in play.
S&P 500 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY hovers below its November peak
USD/JPY continues to range trade marginally below its ¥154.48 nine-month high whilst remaining above its accelerated uptrend line at ¥152.90.
A slip through it would likely engage the 29 October low at ¥151.54.
Were a rise above the recent high at ¥154.48 to be seen, though, the 12 February high at ¥154.80 would be eyed ahead of the early February high at ¥155.88.
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Silver price resumes its ascent
The silver price has been sideways trading for the past couple of weeks but seems to be heading back up again with the 23-to-31 October highs at $49.3763-to-$49.4587 being in focus while this week's low at $46.8800 underpins.
Were it and the August-to-November uptrend line at $46.7900 to give way, the October low at $45.5505 would be back in view.
Silver daily candlestick chart
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