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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

​Bitcoin tests resistance near key highs, eyes next bullish targets amid volatility

​​The flagship cryptocurrency rebounds from $98,330 low to test critical resistance around $108-109k, with Fibonacci models suggesting potential targets at $122k and beyond.​

Bitcoin Source: Adobe images

Written by

Axel Rudolph FSTA

Axel Rudolph FSTA

Senior Technical Analyst

Article publication date:

​​​Bitcoin probes significant resistance area

Bitcoin's recent surge has brought the flagship cryptocurrency back to a critical resistance zone, with investors closely watching for signs of either a breakout or short-term exhaustion.

​After rebounding from a low of $98,330.30 earlier this month - formed near the support line of its downward-sloping channel - Bitcoin has ascended to test the $108,287.62–$109,354.00 range. This area, defined by the December-to-January highs, has historically acted as a resistance barrier.

​Bearish Reversal Risks Near-Term

​From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin may struggle to decisively breach this resistance in the near term. A failure to overcome it could prompt a pullback toward the 30 January high at $106,466.54, and potentially toward the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $105,694.80.

​Support below that includes the channel's median line at $103,545.30 and the mid-June low at $102,758.58. As long as these levels hold, however, the broader bullish structure remains intact.

​Bullish Outlook Remains Dominant

​Despite short-term hurdles, Bitcoin's broader technical setup leans bullish. A daily close above the mid-June high at $108,896.15 and the January $109,354.00 high would probably open the door to a retest of the May and June highs at $110,617.03-to-$111,965.80. A successful break of those highs could reignite upside momentum.

​Beyond those levels lies the much-watched 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2019-to-2021 bull run, projected from the 2022 bear market low. This extension places the next major target at $122,056.92.

​Short-term sentiment stays constructive as long as Bitcoin holds above its 22 June low of $98,330.30 on a daily closing basis.

​Fibonacci Targets and Psychological Milestones

​Fibonacci extension models - widely used by technical analysts to anticipate price discovery levels - suggest possible targets around $122,057.00 and $143,519.00, based on projections from previous cycle highs and lows. These levels are seen as objective, data-driven milestones, often unaffected by market emotion.

​Bitcoin monthly candlestick chart

Bitcoin monthly candlestick chart Source: TradingView

​Adding to the significance of these areas is the psychological $100,000.00 mark which now acts as a support level, long considered a magnet for retail and institutional flows alike. A sustained break beyond the next higher $110,000.00 zone- previously a top between December and January- may fuel further upside, potentially driving Bitcoin toward $150,000.00, a level already embedded in long-term sentiment.

​Long-Term Models and Institutional Tailwinds

​Logarithmic growth curve models, used by some long-term investors, project an upper resistance band in the $120,000.00-to-$150,000.00 range. These models, based on diminishing percentage returns as Bitcoin matures, remain widely followed in crypto circles and have historically mapped bull and bear market boundaries with notable accuracy.

​On-chain indicators such as the MVRV ratio, realised cap multiples, and dormancy flow metrics also support a bullish case. These indicators suggest room for growth before reaching overheated levels, especially as institutional flows via ETFs and sovereign wealth funds start to play a greater role in price dynamics.

​Market Structure and Macro Backdrop Matter

​While technical targets provide a roadmap, the actual trajectory of Bitcoin will be shaped by broader macroeconomic forces - interest rate policies, inflation expectations, regulatory clarity, and investor risk appetite. The presence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), improved market liquidity, and increasing institutional participation all contribute to a fundamentally stronger market structure than in previous cycles.

​Still, significant volatility remains a hallmark of Bitcoin, particularly around major resistance zones. Investors are advised to consider risk management strategies, including incremental profit-taking and conservative position sizing, as Bitcoin navigates its next price discovery phase.

​Technical analysis framework for Bitcoin trading

​The current technical setup for Bitcoin presents a classic test of resistance that could determine the next major directional move for the world's largest cryptocurrency. Understanding these key levels is crucial for both short- and long-term investors.

​The resistance zone between $109,354 and $111,965.80 represents a confluence of technical levels that have previously halted Bitcoin's advance. The ability to break through this area on sustained volume would signal renewed bullish momentum.

​Bitcoin daily candlestick chart 

​Bitcoin daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView

​Conversely, a rejection at these levels would not necessarily invalidate the broader uptrend, but could provide opportunities for tactical investors to enter positions at lower levels closer to the established support areas.

​The importance of the 22 June low at $98,330.00 as a key support cannot be overstated, as a break below this area would potentially alter the current bullish market structure and open the door to deeper corrections.

​Risk management in volatile cryptocurrency markets

​Given Bitcoin's inherent volatility, particularly around major technical levels, implementing appropriate risk management strategies becomes crucial for investors seeking exposure to cryptocurrency markets.

​Position sizing remains one of the most important considerations, as Bitcoin's price movements can be substantial in both directions. Even experienced investors often advocate for smaller position sizes than might be used in traditional asset classes.

​The use of stop-loss orders and profit-taking strategies can help manage downside risk while allowing participation in potential upside moves. However, investors should be aware that Bitcoin's volatility can trigger stops during normal market fluctuations.

​Dollar-cost averaging and systematic accumulation strategies may be more appropriate for long-term investors who believe in Bitcoin's secular growth story but want to reduce the impact of short-term price volatility on their investment returns.​​

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