What’s next for US equities as economic data resumes post-shutdown and tech giant NVIDIA set to report

US equities rebound amid mixed signals

The Nasdaq 100 rebounded from early losses on Friday as investors stepped in to take advantage of the recent dip in technology stocks. Hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers – which diminished expectations of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in December – weighed on the Dow Jones.

For the week, the Nasdaq fell 0.21%, the S&P 500 gained 0.32%, and the Dow Jones added 160 points (+0.34%).

Economic data flow resumes after shutdown

With the United States (US) government shutdown now ended, the flow of economic data will resume, updating the state of the US economy.

• The August – September releases, along with the advance third-quarter (Q3) 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) report, are expected soon. 
• The September employment report is due on 20 November and is expected to show a 40,000-job rise with unemployment remaining steady at 4.3%. The timing of October and November reports remains uncertain. 
• The consumer price index (CPI) and household employment survey for October are unlikely to be released because the data was not collected.

Earnings season beats expectations

In the stock space, the US September quarter earnings season is now roughly 92% complete, with 82% of companies beating expectations compared to a normal rate of 76%. Earnings growth is on track for 15.6% year-on-year (YoY), nearly double the consensus expectation at the start of the season.

The Q3 2025 earnings season continues this week, with reports scheduled from companies including Home Depot, Target, Walmart, and NVIDIA.

FOMC meeting minutes

Date: Thursday, 20 November at 6.00am AEDT

The Fed’s most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, held on 28 – 29 October 2025, resulted in a widely anticipated 25 bp rate cut. This lowered the target range for the Federal funds rate to 3.75% – 4.00%.

This marked the second consecutive cut following a 25 bp reduction in September. The decision reflects the Fed’s ongoing efforts to support a labour market showing signs of softening while managing persistent inflationary pressures.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised a cautious approach, noting that ‘a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion’. This statement dampened expectations of another rate cut before year-end.

The minutes will be closely examined for deeper insights into the Fed’s deliberations and the level of consensus, or dissent, among FOMC members regarding the 25 bp cut. This comes after Powell’s tempered remarks suggested a growing sentiment to ‘wait a cycle’ before the next move and after a more hawkish tone from Fed speakers last week.

The US interest rate market starts the week pricing in a 44% chance of a 25 bp rate hike in December, down from 68% at the start of last week.

Fed funds rate chart

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

The rally from the April 16,542 low and the gains from the September 22,977 low are viewed as an extending Wave V. Under Elliott Wave framework, once a five-wave advance is complete, a correction is expected to commence.

Friday night’s rebound back above the short-term reassessment level of 25,000 for the second time in a week and above the trendline support from the April lows keeps the Nasdaq’s uptrend intact. This supports prospects of a push towards 27,000.

A sustained break below a band of support at 24,600 - 24,200 would create technical damage to the uptrend. It would also warn that a deeper pullback is unfolding towards the lows of mid-August and early September near the 23,000 area. This level is reinforced by the 200-day moving average at around 22,260.

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

S&P 500 technical analysis

Within the rally from the April 4835 low, the gains from the 2 September 6360 low are viewed as an extending Wave V. Under the Elliott Wave framework, once a five-wave advance is complete, the expectation is for a correction to commence.

A sustained break of horizontal support at around 6650 to increase confidence that the late October 6920 high is a medium-term top and the long-awaited pullback is underway.

The initial downside target on a confirmed pullback is the 6360 - 6340 support band (coming from the 2 September and 20 August lows) with downside risks to 6200.

Aware that while the S&P 500 remains above short-term support at around 6550, allow for the uptrend in the S&P 500 to continue towards the next upside target of 7000.

S&P 500 daily chart

• _{Source: TradingView. The figures stated are as of 17 November 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.}