​​​Ryanair trading update preview: strong profit growth expected

Market expectations point to double profit performance

Ryanair is set to publish its first-quarter (Q1) trading statement for the period ending 30 June on Monday 21 July 2025, offering insights into passenger volumes, pricing trends, cost outlooks, and guidance for the current fiscal year (FY).

5-year percentage return and total return (with re-invested dividends)

Expected Q1 2025 earnings key stats: 

• Expected earnings per share (EPS): €0.59, up 88.6% year-on-year (YoY) vs €0.32 in Q1 2024
• Projected revenue: €4.183 billion, up 15% YoY vs €3.626 billion for Q1 2024
• Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: 7.1x (Source: CompaniesMarketCap)
• Forward dividend yield: 1.6%

Analysts anticipate that Ryanair's after-tax profit for Q1 FY 2026 (ending June) will double to €800 million compared to last year, as highlighted by recent commentary ahead of the update. This represents a significant improvement in operational performance despite ongoing industry challenges.

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Michael O'Leary has also expressed confidence, stating there's 'no reason to alter or object to' this projection. His remarks suggest management remains optimistic about the company's ability to deliver strong financial results.

The expected profit doubling reflects improved operational efficiency and strong demand recovery in European aviation markets. Ryanair's low-cost model continues to attract price-sensitive consumers during uncertain economic conditions.

Booking dynamics reveal strong summer momentum

The airline continues to benefit from strong booking momentum entering the summer, with further pricing recovery noted in recent weeks. This trend suggests consumer confidence in travel spending remains robust despite broader economic uncertainty.

However, cost pressures remain under scrutiny, particularly fuel, air traffic control (ATC) charges, and ongoing Boeing delivery delays, as well as the beginning of July French air traffic control strike, which may constrain capacity and squeeze margins. These factors create operational challenges that management must navigate carefully.

Fuel costs represent the largest variable expense for airlines, with oil price volatility directly impacting profitability. Ryanair's hedging strategies help mitigate some exposure, but significant price movements still affect results.

Air traffic control charges continue increasing across European markets, adding to operational cost pressures. These regulatory costs are largely outside management control but must be factored into pricing strategies.

Capacity constraints from Boeing delivery bottleneck

Ryanair has flagged delays in receiving Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, pulling its FY 2026 passenger target down from 210 million to around 206 million — a key variable investor focus for Monday's update. These delivery delays represent a significant operational constraint.

While this limits growth, it’s also creating a capacity constraint which could help with pricing power later in the summer. Reduced industry capacity often translates to higher fares and improved load factors for operating airlines.

The Boeing delivery situation affects not only Ryanair but the entire aviation industry, creating widespread capacity constraints. This industry-wide issue may paradoxically benefit airlines through improved pricing power.

Shares in airlines like Ryanair often reflect both company-specific factors and broader industry dynamics affecting capacity and pricing trends.

Dividend policy and shareholder returns strategy

Ryanair retains a forward dividend yield of approximately 1.6%, with recent share activity hinting at further shareholder returns. The company's progressive dividend policy reflects management confidence in cash generation capabilities.

The company's strong balance sheet has allowed it to sustain a €750 million share buyback programme, likely to be emphasised in the trading update. This capital allocation strategy demonstrates a commitment to returning excess cash to shareholders.

Share repurchases provide flexibility compared to dividends, allowing management to time capital returns based on market conditions and share price valuations. This approach has proven effective during volatile market periods.

The combination of dividends and buybacks creates an attractive total return proposition for investors seeking income and capital appreciation from aviation sector exposure.

Analyst sentiment reflects strong confidence

The analyst community remains bullish, with a 13% upside reflected in consensus mean long-term price targets averaging €26.53. This optimistic outlook suggests analysts view current valuation levels as attractive.

According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) Data & Analytics, 4 analysts have a ‘strong buy’, 11 a ‘buy’, and 4 a ‘hold’ rating for Ryanair (as of 18 July 2025).

Ryanair historical trends and price targets

Ryanair has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘9 Outperform’ and is rated as a ‘buy’ with 2 ‘buy’ and 1 ‘hold’ recommendation (as of 18 July 2025).

Ryanair TipRanks chart

The broad analyst support indicates confidence in Ryanair's strategic direction and execution capabilities. Analyst upgrades often reflect an improving fundamental outlook, operational efficiency gains, and competitive positioning advantages. Ryanair's consistent execution has earned analyst confidence over time.

Trading in airline stocks requires understanding both company-specific factors and broader industry dynamics that influence profitability and growth prospects.

Operational efficiency drives competitive advantage

Ryanair's low-cost model continues providing competitive advantages during challenging market conditions. The airline's focus on operational efficiency, point-to-point routes, and ancillary revenue generation supports margin resilience.

Fleet standardisation on Boeing 737 aircraft reduces maintenance costs, training requirements, and operational complexity. This strategy has proven effective in controlling costs while maintaining operational reliability.

The company's direct sales model reduces distribution costs compared to traditional travel agency channels. Online booking platforms and mobile applications provide cost-effective customer acquisition and service delivery.

Ancillary revenue from baggage fees, seat selection, and onboard services represents an increasingly important profit driver. These additional revenue streams help offset base fare pressure in competitive markets.

Market positioning in European aviation

Ryanair's market leadership in European low-cost aviation provides significant competitive advantages. The airline's extensive route network, high-frequency operations, and strong brand recognition attract both leisure and business travellers.

Secondary airport utilisation reduces operating costs while often providing more convenient access for passengers. This strategy differentiates Ryanair from legacy carriers focused on primary hub airports.

The company's point-to-point route structure avoids complex hub-and-spoke operations, reducing connection risks and operational complexity. This approach appeals to passengers seeking direct flights at competitive prices.

Foreign exchange (forex) trading considerations become important for Ryanair given its multi-currency operations across European markets and fuel purchasing in US dollar's.

Technical analysis suggests continued strength

Recent share price performance, up around 23% year-to-date (YTD) and trading close to its all-time record high at €24.78, indicates strong momentum heading into the trading update.

Ryanair weekly candlestick chart

A rise above the 8 July record high at €24.78 would put the psychological €25.00 mark on the map. If overcome, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the August 2024 to March 2025 advance, projected higher from the April 2025 low at €29.05, would be in focus.

While the Ryanair share price remains above its June low at €22.50, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to be intact. Failure at this level may lead to the January-to-March highs at €21.33 to €20.90 being revisited, however.

Ryanair daily candlestick chart

Volume patterns accompanying recent price movements indicate institutional interest in the stock. This suggests professional investors view current levels as attractive for accumulation ahead of results.

However, airline stocks typically exhibit high volatility around results announcements, requiring careful risk management for short-term trading strategies.

Investment considerations for Ryanair shares

Ryanair's business model resilience during economic uncertainty makes it attractive for investors seeking defensive growth exposure. The airline's cost advantages and market position provide competitive moats.

Currency exposure creates additional considerations given operations across multiple European markets. Exchange rate movements can significantly impact reported financial results and comparative performance.

Regulatory environment changes, including environmental regulations and airport charges, represent ongoing risks that could affect profitability. Management's ability to adapt to regulatory changes influences long-term success.

Share trading around earnings announcements requires understanding both fundamental factors and technical chart patterns that influence short-term price movements.

How to trade Ryanair shares

1. Research Ryanair's business model thoroughly, including route network, cost structure, and competitive positioning within European aviation markets. Understanding these factors helps predict how market conditions might impact performance.
2. Consider both trading and investing approaches based on your time horizon and risk tolerance. Airlines can experience significant volatility around results announcements and external events affecting travel demand.
3. Choose whether you want to trade or invest in Ryanair shares. Trading platforms provide real-time data and analysis tools for making informed decisions about aviation sector investments.
4. Open an account with us to access Ryanair shares and comprehensive market analysis. Our platform offers research tools and risk management features for airline sector trading.
5. Search for Ryanair on our platform to monitor pre-results price action and analyst commentary. Consider using limit orders and stop-losses to manage risk around the potentially volatile trading update announcement period.