Micron Technology Q4 FY2025 earnings preview: high expectations amid sector risks

Strong momentum tempered by sector challenges

Micron Technology is entering its 23 September fourth quarter (Q4) fiscal year (FY) 2025 after-hours earnings report with investor expectations high, yet tempered by ongoing risks in the memory sector and supply chain pressures.

Year-to-date, the Micron Technology share price has risen by 100%. Over the past five years, it gained 28.6% on a total annualised return and by 251% on a total return (by reinvesting dividends) basis.

Micron Technology performance bar chart

Micron Technology financial expectations

Micron Technology is expected to see a steep rise in its revenue and pre-tax profits:

• Revenue: $11.2 billion, representing a near 45% year-over-year increase
• Pre-tax profit: $3.6 billion compared to $1.7 billion in Q4 2024
• Earnings per share (EPS): $2.86, up from $1.18 in the same period last year

These projections come despite broader market challenges and as the Micron Technology share price trades at record highs.

The company's recent financial performance has shown strong momentum—record revenues thanks to surging demand from artificial intelligence (AI) driven data centres, especially for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products, have been major drivers behind optimism.

Analysts have raised earnings estimates and price targets, citing recovering dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) pricing—reflecting how much buyers pay for memory chips, driven by supply-demand cycles, a key leading indicator for the semiconductor industry’s health—and improved gross margins, with consensus estimates for fiscal Q4 revenue in the range of roughly US$11 billion to US$11.2 billion.

AI demand drives high-bandwidth memory success

The AI boom has created unprecedented demand for HBM products, positioning Micron as a key beneficiary of the data centre infrastructure buildout required to support AI applications.

HBM products command premium pricing compared to traditional DRAM, providing Micron with both revenue growth and margin expansion opportunities that have supported the recent financial recovery.

Customer wins with major cloud service providers and AI hardware companies have validated Micron's technology roadmap and market positioning in this critical growth segment.

The sustainability of AI-driven demand will be crucial for maintaining current performance levels and justifying continued investment in advanced memory technologies.

NAND segment faces persistent headwinds

Still, not everything is rosy. Non-volatile flash memory (NAND), which serves many consumer-facing applications, continues to face headwinds including soft demand and overstocked inventories.

These factors threaten to erode margins if not offset by strong DRAM and HBM demand and tight supply conditions across the industry.

Consumer electronics markets have been weaker than expected, affecting demand for NAND products used in smartphones, tablets, and other devices.

The divergence between strong enterprise/AI demand and weak consumer demand creates challenges for companies like Micron with exposure to both market segments.

Geopolitical risks complicate outlook

Geopolitical risks, especially around trade policies and tariffs, remain on investors' minds as they could affect both the cost of inputs and market access for semiconductor companies.

Supply chain complexity in the semiconductor industry makes companies vulnerable to trade disruptions and policy changes that can quickly affect manufacturing costs and customer access.

The ongoing technology competition between major economies creates additional uncertainty for companies with global operations and customer bases like Micron.

These external factors add volatility to an already cyclical industry, making forward planning and guidance more challenging for management teams.

Forward guidance holds key to sentiment

What will be especially watched in the coming update is how Micron frames its forward guidance. Investors will want clarity on whether margin forecasts from the last quarter are being surpassed this period.

Whether Micron's investment plans—such as its heavy spending in United States (US) chip fabrication facilities (fabs), research and development (R&D), and ramping HBM production—are paying off in terms of ramp-ups, customer wins, and yield improvements will be crucial.

The balance between supply constraints (which help pricing) and the risk of overcapacity if demand softens will likely dominate commentary from management.

Capital expenditure levels and their impact on free cash flow will be important considerations for investors assessing the sustainability of current investment programs.

Micron Technology technical analysis and analyst rating

Micron Technology’s share price, up around 100% year-to-date, is trading at record highs, having so far risen to $170.45.

Further up potentially beckons the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the 2016 to 2018 bull run, projected higher by a factor of 1.618% from the 2018 low which comes in around the $173 mark.

Micron Technology monthly candlestick chart

The current September all-time high has been made very close to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension around which upside momentum may wane. If not, the psychological $200 mark may be reached next.

Even if a reversal to the downside were to be seen, the June to August highs at $129.85 to $128.60 would be expected to act as strong support.

Micron Technology daily candlestick chart

The long-term uptrend will remain valid while the early August low at $103.38 holds.

According to LSEG Data & Analytics, most analysts rate Micron Technology as a 'buy' with ten having a 'strong buy' recommendation. The mean long-term share price upside target is approximately $155, around 8% below the current share price (as of 19 September 2025).

Micron Technology buy/sell indicators and analyst projections 

TipRanks has a Smart Score of '7 neutral' despite a 'strong buy' rating for Micron Technology.

Micron Technology TipRanks chart

Market reaction scenarios

Should Micron deliver a strong revenue beat, robust guidance for margins, and reaffirmed confidence in its AI/HBM positioning, the reaction from markets is likely to be positive, potentially carrying the stock even higher towards the $175 region.

On the other hand, any indications of weakening demand in NAND markets, margin compression, or softness in orders from consumer electronics might trigger profit-taking by investors already riding a strong run.

The binary nature of potential outcomes reflects the high expectations already embedded in Micron's valuation and the sensitivity of memory stocks to demand and pricing trends.

Semiconductor stocks often experience significant volatility around earnings announcements, making risk management particularly important for traders and investors.

Investment considerations for memory semiconductor exposure

For investors considering Micron ahead of the Q4 earnings announcement, the company represents both AI infrastructure growth potential and cyclical semiconductor market risks.

1. Research Micron's competitive positioning, technology roadmap, and market opportunities in both AI and traditional memory markets.
2. Consider how semiconductor cycles, AI demand sustainability, and geopolitical factors might affect the company's performance trajectory.
3. Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. Search for 'Micron Technology' or its ticker 'MU' on our trading platform or app.
5. Implement appropriate risk management given the high volatility typical of semiconductor stocks around earnings announcements.

Spread betting and contracts for difference (CFD) trading provide flexible approaches for trading Micron around earnings, allowing positions on both rising and falling prices.

For longer-term investors who believe in the AI infrastructure growth story, share dealing offers direct ownership in a leading memory technology company, though investors should be prepared for continued volatility.

The upcoming earnings will provide crucial insights into whether Micron can sustain its AI-driven momentum while managing the cyclical challenges facing traditional memory markets and navigating an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.