​​​Gold's path to $4000: what needs to happen for the next milestone?

Record highs raise $4000 target prospects

​Gold has been on a tear lately, and the question many investors now ask is: when could it hit $4000 per ounce? The recent momentum, driven by a mix of macroeconomic, geopolitical and demand-shifting dynamics, has made $4000 a plausible - even if ambitious - target over the medium-term. 

In 2025, gold has already year-to-date (YTD) gains of over 45% and broken through multiple record levels. On September 30, it reached a new all-time high close to $3900 per ounce, with spot gold closing around $3843. The precious metal is on track for its seventh straight week of gains.

This surge was fuelled by fears of a United States (US) government shutdown, soft US dollar dynamics, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. These factors suggest that the rally has fundamental backing rather than being purely speculative or momentum-driven.

Weak dollar and lower real yields drive demand

​A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, broadening international demand. At the same time, real yields on US Treasury securities -i.e. nominal yields minus inflation -have been under pressure.

With yields falling or stalling, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold diminishes significantly. The drop in yields and a weaker dollar have been cited repeatedly in commentary as key supports for gold's recent gains. 

This dynamic creates favourable conditions for gold investment, as the traditional drawback of holding a non-income-generating asset becomes less relevant.

Historically, the relationship between real yields and gold prices has been one of the most reliable predictors of precious metal performance over medium-term horizons.

Central bank accumulation provides structural support

​Unlike many commodities that rely on industrial demand, gold demand is heavily driven by institutional buyers - central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and large funds. Analysts at Deutsche Bank point to central bank purchases of 400-500 tons per year as a structural force. 

The World Gold Council and other analysts note that many national banks are diversifying reserves away from US dollar-based assets, creating sustained buying pressure.

This institutional demand creates a price floor that helps sustain higher gold prices independently of more volatile investment flows.

Central bank buying represents long-term strategic decisions rather than tactical trading, providing stability to the demand picture.

Safe-haven demand responds to uncertainty

Gold's traditional role as a safe haven has re-emerged. US fiscal stress, political polarisation, global tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, instability in the Middle East), and worries about debt sustainability are driving investors toward refuge assets.

The fear of a government shutdown in the US has triggered gold buying as investors seek protection from political dysfunction.

Inflation remains sticky in many economies, and markets are discounting eventual easing or 'pivoting' from central banks, with the anticipation of Fed rate cuts featuring prominently.

Technical momentum and sentiment feedback loops amplify these fundamental drivers, as gold breaks above resistance and hits record highs, attracting momentum investors and trend followers.

Requirements for $4000 breakthrough

Reaching $4000 per ounce in 2025 or early 2026 would require several aligned or accelerated drivers. A further decline in real interest rates would be crucial if inflation remains steady while nominal yields decline.

Persistent or growing central bank accumulation must continue, with strong institutional demand as global central banks maintain net buying positions.

Sustained US dollar weakness is necessary, as a strong dollar rally could dampen gold demand.

New macro or geopolitical shocks could spur increased safe-asset bids, while positive supply and demand asymmetries and supply tightness could amplify price movements.

Analyst forecasts support $4000 possibility

If all these factors align, many analysts believe $4000 becomes more than aspirational. JP Morgan's research suggests gold could average $3675 in the fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 and advance toward $4000 by mid-2026 under favourable conditions.

Goldman Sachs  flags that if private investor demand ramps up meaningfully – for instance, through asset reallocation toward gold – $4000 could be more plausible earlier in the timeline.

Some forecasts even project gold into the $4000 to 4500 range in aggressive scenarios where multiple supportive factors align simultaneously.

These targets reflect the view that gold's current momentum has fundamental support rather than being purely speculative.

Risks could derail upward trajectory

A run to $4000 is not guaranteed, with risks that could slow or reverse the ascent. Resurgent US dollar strength or policy tightening surprises could reduce gold demand if central banks delay rate cuts.

Stronger growth and risk-on sentiment might attract capital away from safe havens if global growth exceeds expectations, reducing investor appeal for defensive assets.

Profit-taking and technical pullbacks are natural in extended rallies, potentially exhausting momentum and causing volatile retreats.

If central banks slow purchases or even sell, a major pillar of gold's support structure could be removed, affecting the demand landscape.

Technical analysis of the gold price

Gold, up over 45% YTD and about 12% in September alone, nearly reached $3900 per troy ounce this week, around which it is now consolidating.

It remains above a 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $3746.85, measured from the August 1999 low at $252.10 to the September 2011 peak at $1921.07, projected higher from the December 2015 low at $1046.46 to the 23 September high at $3791.

Gold daily candlestick chart

Further up lies the psychological mark at $4000, remaining in sight while the last reaction low on 18 September at $3627.96 underpins on a daily closing basis.

Failure at this level may lead to a minor pullback towards the 3 September high at $3579, but while the next lower 4 September low at $3512 holds, the long-term uptrend is deemed intact.

The short-term uptrend will remain valid while the August to October uptrend line at $3796 underpins, with the psychological $4000 mark representing the next upside target.

Investment opportunities in gold's advance

For investors considering gold exposure as it approaches $4000, several approaches provide access to this potential rally.

1. Research gold market dynamics, monetary policy implications, and safe-haven investment strategies to understand the drivers behind current strength.
2. Consider how gold exposure fits within portfolio diversification and risk management objectives during uncertain economic times.
3. Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. Access gold markets through our platform, including spot gold, futures, and gold-related securities.
5. Implement appropriate position sizing and risk management given gold's potential for gains and corrections.

Spread betting and contracts for difference (CFD) trading provide flexible approaches for gaining exposure to gold price movements.

For longer-term precious metals exposure, investment in gold-backed funds or mining companies offers alternative approaches to direct commodity exposure.

Given current momentum, gold could cross $4000 per ounce sometime between late 2025 and mid-2026, depending on how rapidly supportive forces play out. Gold has substantial tailwinds today, and reaching $4000 is achievable – provided central banks, macro trends, and investor sentiment remain favourable.