How could investors prepare for US-China trade war? Expert analysis reveals winners and losers from superpower stand-off
Tech, auto and agriculture stocks highly exposed as US-China tariffs escalate, according to IG analysis
Defence, consumer staples and utilities more resilient during previous and current trade US-China trade tensions
Tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, despite some exceptions, signal deepening but narrower trade conflict
London, Monday 14 April – With neither the US nor China backing down from an escalating trade war, analysis from global trading and investing platform IG has revealed the sectors most vulnerable to the deepening trade rift - and those that may weather it best.
According to the analysis, which looked at current market conditions and the previous US-China trade war in 2018, technology, autos and agriculture stocks could be the biggest losers from an ongoing stand-off, while defence, consumer staples and utility stocks are likely to be most sheltered, as shown in the table below.
Table: Sector performance and current exposure during the US/China trade war(s)
| Sector | Examples of US stocks in this sector | Exposure during first trade war | Current exposure (2025) |
| Aerospace | Boeing |
High | High |
| Agriculture | Archer-Daniels-Midland Co, Bunge | High | High |
| Automotive | Ford, General Motors, Tesla | High | High |
| Consumer Staples | Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble | Low | Low |
| Defence | Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman | Low | Low |
| Semiconductors | Intel, Micron | High | High |
| Technology | Apple, Amazon, Microsoft | Moderate | High |
| Utilities | Duke Energy Corporation, NextEra, The Southern Company | Low | Low |
*Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The likely losers – agriculture, tech and autos
Sectors that performed poorly in the last trade war were those heavily reliant on international supply chains and exports to China. These included:
Agriculture: Farmers, particularly soybean producers, were severely hit as China imposed retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products. This led to a dramatic decrease in exports and financial hardship for many in the sector.
Technology: Companies such as Apple, which depend on Chinese manufacturing and markets, encountered increased costs and reduced sales due to tariffs and supply chain disruptions.
Automotive: Manufacturers such as Ford and General Motors faced higher production costs and sales declines as tariffs increased the price of imported components and vehicles.
The potential ‘winners’ – defence, consumer staples and utility stocks
Some sectors demonstrated resilience or even benefitted during the previous US/China trade tensions. For example:
Defence: Companies such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing saw increased demand, potentially due to heightened geopolitical tensions and increased defence spending.
Consumer staples: Firms producing essential goods, less sensitive to trade disruptions, generally maintained stable performance.
Utilities: This sector was relatively unaffected by international trade dynamics, providing consistent returns during the period.
Commenting on the data, IG Market Analyst Axel Rudolph, said:
“The first US-China trade war showed just how rapidly global supply chains can turn from strength to weakness. Sectors tied to Chinese exports or manufacturing took the biggest hits - and they’re right back in the firing line now.
“On the flip side, industries with a more domestic focus were far more sheltered from the storm. With Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods now reaching a staggering 145%, this round of the trade war may be more targeted, but it’s also getting deeper. A short-term US-China decoupling is firmly on the cards.
“For investors, this isn’t about making knee jerk reactions - it’s about smart positioning. Diversify, rebalance sector exposure, and most importantly, don’t panic.”
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