WTI crude oil surges while gold struggles higher, and VIX falls to fresh post-Covid low
Oil prices have maintained their rally, while gold has managed to recoup some losses. Meanwhile, the VIX has fallen to a new low for the year.
Gold downtrend intact
Gold prices rallied off their lows on Thursday, but this merely points for the moment towards an intraday lower high. A fresh turn lower targets $1900, before opening the way to the $1885 lows of mid-August. In the medium term, a deeper move lower targets the lows of March around $1806. A rally back above the 200-day SMA might see the price target trendline resistance from the July highs, with a close above $1940 suggesting a more near-term bullish view.
WTI rally goes on
Oil prices continued their surge on Thursday, surging to a fresh 2023 high, and putting WTI on course to hit the $92.95 highs from November last year. The price shows no sign of slowing its ascent, and buyers continue to leap on the slightest weakness. Even a move back towards $85 would still leave the rally from the June lows intact, and would create a higher low. Trendline support from the June lows comes into play around $85.
VIX at three-and-a-half-year low
Volatility continues to decline, and the IG rolling VIX price has hit its lowest level since the beginning of January 2020. The lows of 2019 around 14.3 now provide the next area of possible support. A rebound in the Vix may well be overdue, but for the moment there is no sign of a recovery, though a close above 16 might suggest that a short-term low is formed.
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