The Week Ahead
Week commencing 5 May
Chris Beauchamp insight
The Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) rate decisions dominate the week, along with US and Chinese purchasing managers indices (PMIs). Investors continue to watch closely for signs the trade war, even though generally on pause, is beginning to have an impact on the data. Key earnings this week include Palantir, AMD and Disney in the US, and Next in the UK.
Economic reports
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- Thursday
- Friday
- Weekly view
UK bank holiday
3pm – US ISM services PMI (April): expected to fall into contraction territory at 49.4, from 50.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses
2.45am – China services PMI (April): forecast to fall to 50.5 from 51.9. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US trade balance (March): this may continue to reflect a surge in imports due to companies attempting to front-run the imposition of tariffs. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (April): forecast to fall to 48 from 51.3. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
9.30am – UK construction PMI (April): forecast to rise to 47 from 46.4. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 2 May): previous week saw stockpiles fall by 2.7 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.5%, but with markets now pricing in a June rate cut of 25bps, the language of the statement and accompanying press conference will be watched closely. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
12pm – Bank of England (BoE) rate decision: rates forecast to be cut to 4.25%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 3 May): XXX Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4am – China trade data (April): exports expected to fall 2% year-on-year (YoY) and imports to fall 5%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment data (April): unemployment rate forecast to rise to 6.8%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Monday
UK bank holiday
3pm – US ISM services PMI (April): expected to fall into contraction territory at 49.4, from 50.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses
Tuesday
2.45am – China services PMI (April): forecast to fall to 50.5 from 51.9. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – US trade balance (March): this may continue to reflect a surge in imports due to companies attempting to front-run the imposition of tariffs. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (April): forecast to fall to 48 from 51.3. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Wednesday
9.30am – UK construction PMI (April): forecast to rise to 47 from 46.4. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 2 May): previous week saw stockpiles fall by 2.7 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – Fed rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.5%, but with markets now pricing in a June rate cut of 25bps, the language of the statement and accompanying press conference will be watched closely. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
12pm – Bank of England rate decision: rates forecast to be cut to 4.25%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 3 May): XXX Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Friday
4am – China trade data (April): exports expected to fall 2% YoY and imports to fall 5%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment data (April): unemployment rate forecast to rise to 6.8%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Company announcements
Monday |
Tuesday |
Wednesday |
Thursday |
Friday |
|
Full-year earnings |
|
|
|
||
| Half/ Quarterly earnings | Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) |
Man, |
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Trading update* |
|
International Workspace | Next, IMI, |
|
Dividends
FTSE ex-dividend dates (1st May):
FTSE 250: Ibstock, Clarkson, Hochschild Mining, AG Barr, Petershill Partners, GCP Infrastructure, Playtech
Index adjustments
|
Monday 5 May |
Tuesday 6 May |
Wednesday 7 May |
Thursday 8 May |
Friday 9 May |
Monday 12 May |
| FTSE 100 | 8.82 | |||||
| Australia 200 | 0.2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | ||
| Wall Street | 11.8 | 1.6 | 3.6 | |||
| US 500 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.15 |
| Nasdaq | 0.30 | 0.66 | 2.66 | |||
| Netherlands 25 | 1.18 | 0.7 | ||||
| US Russell 2000 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| China H-Shares | 1.6 | 1.4 | ||||
| Singapore Blue Chip | 0.08 | 1.21 | ||||
| Hong Kong HS50 | 1.3 | 15.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | ||
| South Africa 40 | ||||||
| France 40 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 24.1 | 9.9 | ||
| Stoxx 600 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.2 |
* Please note these can change without notice
1 Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day
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