Gold price today (UK): XAU/USD nears $4,300 as oil falls on a Hormuz shipping deal

What's happening across gold, oil and GBP/USD today

A single geopolitical development - progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East oil shipping route - is rippling across three different markets simultaneously, but not in the same direction.

Oil slides on a Strait of Hormuz shipping deal

Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, boosting expectations of increased energy flows from the Middle East (TradingEconomics, 6 August 2026). Brent crude fell as much as 5.85% to $78.87 a barrel on 4 August before a partial recovery, while WTI eased further to around $75.40 by 5 August (IG, 5 August 2026). The strait remains an active area of tension - UKMTO reported a cargo vessel struck by an unknown projectile off Oman on 3-4 August, one of dozens of shipping incidents since fighting began in February 2026 (IG, 5 August 2026).

Gold climbs as the Fed rate outlook turns less hawkish

Weaker oil prices are easing inflation concerns, which in turn is prompting markets to scale back bets on further Federal Reserve interest rate rises this year (FXStreet, 5 August 2026). Lower expected interest rates tend to support gold, because the metal pays no yield of its own and becomes relatively more attractive when rates on cash and bonds are expected to fall or rise less than previously priced in.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that lower oil prices are reducing expectations for further US interest rate rises this year, which is supportive for gold (CNBC, via FXStreet, 3 August 2026). This is not a guarantee of future performance.

GBP/USD caught between US dollar weakness and a lack of domestic catalysts

GBP/USD was trading near 1.3460 in early European hours on Thursday, largely tracking the US Dollar's moves rather than any specific UK data (FXStreet, 6 August 2026). Cable has lacked a strong domestic catalyst this week, leaving its direction dictated mostly by the Greenback (FXStreet, 4 August 2026).

Why oil and gold can move in opposite directions on the same news

It can look strange that one headline sends oil down and gold up, but the two commodities react to different parts of the story. Oil reacts to supply risk - if a shipping route reopens, more oil can reach the market, so the price tends to fall. Gold and the US Dollar react to the interest rate and inflation outlook - if lower oil prices mean lower inflation, that can reduce the odds of future rate rises, which tends to support gold.

Silver often amplifies whichever direction gold is moving, because on top of reacting to the dollar and rates, it also has industrial demand exposure that gold does not share to the same degree.

• Oil = supply-risk driven; gold/USD = rate-and-inflation-outlook driven.
• The same headline can therefore move correlated assets in opposite directions.
• Silver can amplify gold's moves due to its added industrial-demand sensitivity.

What UK traders are watching into Friday's NFP

Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report - the US government's monthly measure of jobs added outside the farming sector - is the next major scheduled catalyst for all three markets. A weaker-than-expected reading would likely reinforce the recent trend of falling rate-hike expectations, which has so far been supportive for gold and a headwind for the US Dollar. A stronger reading could do the opposite.

Given how closely today's commodity moves are tied to the US Dollar, some traders use forex positions on GBP/USD or other dollar pairs alongside commodities exposure to gold and oil, given how closely these markets are currently connected.

Given how quickly sentiment can reverse if the Hormuz talks stall or a new incident occurs, some traders also use risk management tools such as stop-loss orders to prevent losses beyond a pre-set level. Losses can exceed your initial deposit when trading with leverage.

FAQ

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.