GBP/USD Forecast This Week: What Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls Could Mean for the Pound

Where GBP/USD stands this week

GBP/USD is forecast to trade broadly between 1.32 and 1.36 during the week of 3–7 August 2026, according to currency forecasters, with Friday's non-farm payrolls release seen as the dominant driver in the absence of any UK data of similar weight. Sterling therefore takes its lead from the US dollar side of the pair for most of the week.

Why there's no Bank of England meeting to drive the pound this week

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026 - a decision made in a split vote that flagged upside risks to inflation. It was the Bank's fifth hold of the year. With that decision already delivered, there's no scheduled BoE meeting again until 17 September 2026, which is the next domestic event that could reset GBP/USD's medium-term range.

What non-farm payrolls is and why it matters for GBP/USD

Non-farm payrolls (NFP) is a monthly US employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, covering the change in the number of paid US workers, excluding farm labour, government employees, and a few other categories. It's one of the most closely watched releases in forex markets because it feeds directly into the Federal Reserve's view of the US labour market, which in turn shapes expectations for US interest rates and the US dollar.

This Friday's release, due at 8:30am ET (1:30pm UK time) on 7 August 2026, covers July 2026 data. It arrives roughly five weeks ahead of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting and will sit alongside the mid-August US inflation (CPI) report as core input into that decision. A stronger-than-expected jobs number tends to support the US dollar (and can pressure GBP/USD lower), while a weaker reading tends to have the opposite effect - though actual market reaction also depends on how the figure compares with economist forecasts, not just the headline number itself.

Key GBP/USD levels to watch into Friday

Ahead of the release, GBP/USD has been trading within its recent range, with technical analysts pointing to resistance in the 1.3440–1.3480 area and support closer to 1.3270–1.3300. These are general observations from market commentary, not price predictions or trading recommendations, and levels can shift quickly once the NFP data is published.

GBP/EUR context: sterling's other major pair

Away from the dollar, GBP/EUR is holding near one-year highs in a roughly 1.15–1.18 range, supported by an approximately 150 basis-point gap between Bank of England and European Central Bank policy rates. UK inflation eased to 2.6% in June 2026, but sticky services inflation is one reason the BoE has continued to hold rather than cut - a dynamic that's helped sterling retain a yield advantage over the euro in recent months.

How traders track event risk like NFP

This is general information, not a trading strategy or personalised advice. In broad terms, traders commonly prepare for scheduled high-impact events such as NFP by checking an economic calendar for the exact release time, being aware that volatility and spreads can widen sharply in the minutes around the release, and considering their own risk management approach - such as stop-loss orders - given how quickly prices can move. Losses can exceed your initial deposit when trading with leverage, which is why position sizing and risk management are particularly relevant around scheduled data releases.

FAQ

Losses can exceed your initial deposit when trading with leverage.

Sources: Cambridge Currencies weekly forecast (3 Aug 2026), FXStreet/Market Pulse (30 Jul 2026), Finance Calendar (US Employment Situation, Aug 2026), Trading Economics, Forex Fundamentals (BoE rate decision history).