EasyJet shareholders just got a higher offer — and the stock is still at a discount. Here’s why.

EasyJet’s takeover story has moved fast. On 6 July 2026, the board agreed in principle to Castlelake’s £6.90-per-share offer. By 10 July — just four days later — a new, higher offer of £7.15 per share has emerged, with the board again agreeing in principle. The airline is now valued at approximately £5.7 billion (MarketScreener, 10 July 2026).

Despite the higher price, easyJet shares continue to trade below the offer level. The gap between the current share price and the bid tells investors something important: the market still isn’t convinced the deal will close. Here’s what changed, why the discount persists, and what shareholders need to know ahead of the 3 August deadline.

What changed from the original £6.90 offer?

The new offer of £7.15 per share represents a 3.6% increase on the £6.90 price that easyJet’s board agreed in principle on 6 July. At £7.15, the offer values easyJet at approximately £5.7 billion — up from the £5.5 billion valuation implied by the original bid.

The higher offer represents an 80% premium to easyJet’s closing price on 29 May 2026, the day Castlelake first disclosed its interest to British regulators (MarketScreener, 10 July 2026). The original £6.90 offer was already a 73% premium to that same reference date.

The terms of the deal structure — a cash offer, proposed delisting, and the requirement for Castlelake to demonstrate a compliant EU ownership structure — remain unchanged. The firm offer deadline of 3 August under the UK Takeover Code also stands.

Why is the stock still trading at a discount?

This is the central question for easyJet shareholders. Despite the board backing two successive offers, the share price has not converged to the offer price — a pattern that signals persistent market scepticism about whether the deal will complete.

The discount reflects two structural risks that neither the £6.90 nor the £7.15 offer has resolved:

• EU aviation ownership rules: European aviation regulations require that airlines holding European operating licences be majority-owned and effectively controlled by EU nationals. Castlelake, as a US firm, cannot directly own more than 49.9% of easyJet. The proposed solution — two EU nationals holding the compliant stake — must be accepted by regulators in multiple jurisdictions. That regulatory gate remains open
• Funding certainty: until Castlelake submits a formal firm offer with guaranteed funding in place before the 3 August deadline, the bid is not legally binding. Bidders occasionally walk away between in-principle agreement and a firm offer

The pattern of a share price trading persistently below a cash offer is called a ‘takeover arbitrage discount’. The size of the discount is a direct read of the market’s estimated probability that the deal fails. A large discount means the market assigns a meaningful probability of failure; a narrow discount means near-certainty of completion. (Standard M&A practice)

What does the higher bid signal?

The jump from £6.90 to £7.15 in four days is unusual and worth interpreting carefully. Two explanations are most plausible:

• Competitive tension: a rival bidder may have emerged or indicated interest, prompting Castlelake to improve its offer preemptively to secure board exclusivity before the 3 August deadline. EasyJet has not disclosed whether another party is involved
• Board negotiation: the board may have used the four days since the £6.90 in-principle agreement to negotiate harder on price before formally agreeing, extracting a higher figure before the process moves to a firm offer stage

Either explanation is consistent with the pattern. What the higher bid does confirm is that Castlelake is sufficiently motivated to pay more — which is a positive signal for shareholders who want the deal to close. It also narrows the negotiating room between the offer price and where the share trades, which could either accelerate convergence or signal that the structural risks are keeping the discount wide regardless of price.

For more on how UK takeovers work, see IG’s earlier guide to the easyJet Castlelake takeover — what shareholders need to know.

What are the key risks between now and 3 August?

• Regulatory clearance of ownership structure: the EU and UK aviation regulators must accept that Castlelake’s proposed structure genuinely transfers control to EU nationals. This is the deal’s critical gate — without it, easyJet’s European operating licences are at risk
• Funding commitment: Castlelake must submit a firm offer with guaranteed financing by 3 August. Any sign of funding difficulty would likely cause the share price to fall sharply back toward pre-announcement levels
• Geopolitical and market conditions: the Iran ceasefire collapse this week has added to aviation sector uncertainty. Higher jet fuel costs and equity market volatility are not deal-breakers, but they add complexity to the backdrop
• Stelios family position: the Haji-Ioannou family owns approximately 15% of easyJet. Their voting intention has not been publicly confirmed and would be a significant swing factor in any shareholder vote

What happens to shareholders if the deal completes?

If Castlelake submits a firm offer at £7.15 and shareholders approve it via a court-sanctioned scheme of arrangement (which requires 75% by value and a majority by number of those voting), shareholders receive £7.15 in cash per share and easyJet is delisted from the London Stock Exchange.

Tax note: a cash takeover typically triggers a capital gains tax event for shares held outside an ISA. Shareholders holding in an ISA are sheltered from CGT. Those holding outside an ISA may have a taxable gain depending on their acquisition price and the annual CGT allowance (currently £3,000 per individual in 2026/27). This is not tax advice — seek independent guidance for your own situation.

If the deal falls through before a firm offer is submitted, easyJet shares would likely retreat toward their pre-announcement level of around 558p (4 July 2026 close). Under the UK Takeover Code, Castlelake would typically be barred from making another offer for 12 months.

Updated easyJet bid summed up

• New offer: £7.15 per share, up from £6.90 — an 80% premium to the 29 May 2026 reference price; values easyJet at ~£5.7 billion
• The board agreed in principle to the new price on 10 July, just four days after agreeing the original bid
• Shares still trade at a discount to the offer, reflecting EU ownership rule risk and funding uncertainty
• The higher bid signals Castlelake motivation and possible competitive tension — but the structural risks are unchanged
• Key date: 3 August 2026 — Castlelake must submit a firm offer or withdraw under the UK Takeover Code
• If the deal completes: shareholders receive £7.15 cash per share; easyJet is delisted. CGT may apply outside an ISA.
• Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Capital at risk.

Frequently asked questions

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.