Bitcoin hits $62,000 after soft US jobs data — is the bear market over?

Bitcoin has had one of its sharpest short-term recoveries of 2026. From a low of $57,750 on the morning of 2 July, it climbed back to $62,000 on 3 July — a 7.3% move in under 48 hours — after the US jobs report for June came in dramatically below expectations, cutting the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike.

The question on every UK crypto investor’s mind: is this the bottom, or just another dead-cat bounce? Here’s the full picture.

What triggered the bitcoin rally?

The immediate trigger was Thursday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 57,000 new jobs in June — well below the 110,000 forecast and down from a revised 129,000 in May. In the minutes after the release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September fell from approximately 65% to 50% according to CME FedWatch data (2 July 2026).

That shift matters enormously for bitcoin. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin. When rate hike expectations fall, that headwind reduces — and bitcoin, which had been in extreme fear territory (Fear & Greed Index: 11 as of 1 July), can react sharply.

The move built on momentum from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on 2 July that inflation risks had come down, which had already pushed bitcoin above $60,000 for the first time in over a week. The weak NFP then accelerated the rally to $62,000 (Invezz, 3 July 2026).

Why does the NFP report matter for bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s sensitivity to US macroeconomic data has increased significantly since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Institutional investors, who now hold a meaningful share of bitcoin through those ETFs, tend to treat bitcoin as a macro asset — similar to gold or tech stocks — rather than a purely independent alternative currency.

That means the same data that drives US equity and bond markets now directly influences bitcoin:

• Weak jobs data → lower rate hike expectations → dollar weakens → risk assets rally → bitcoin benefits
• Strong jobs data → higher rate hike expectations → dollar strengthens → risk-off selling → bitcoin falls

This two-way sensitivity helps explain much of bitcoin’s 2026 weakness: the Fed’s unexpectedly hawkish turn in H1, driven by Iran-conflict energy inflation and the AI investment boom, was the single biggest macro headwind throughout the year.

Bitcoin’s 52-week correlation with the US dollar index (DXY) has been running at approximately -0.85 through H1 2026 — meaning bitcoin has moved inversely to dollar strength more reliably than at almost any other point in its history. (CoinDesk, June 2026)

What do the technicals show?

Technical analysts have flagged several signals that have historically been associated with cycle lows — though none is a guarantee of future performance:

• EMA reclaim: bitcoin has reclaimed its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages following the rally and is pressing toward the 100-day EMA. Reclaiming key moving averages is typically seen as a positive momentum signal (Invezz, 3 July 2026)
• Support pocket: analysts identify a clear support zone at $60,400–$60,700, which held through the most recent test (Invezz, 3 July 2026)
• Realised profit-to-loss ratio: at its lowest level since 2022 — a reading that has historically marked the late stages of bear market cycles (Invezz, 3 July 2026)
• Fear & Greed Index: moved from an extreme fear reading of 11 on 1 July toward less extreme territory as the rally developed, though still well below neutral (CoinMarketCap, 3 July 2026)

Past performance of technical indicators is not a reliable guide to future outcomes. These signals are informational, not predictive.

Is the bear market over?

This article does not constitute financial advice and we cannot tell you whether the bitcoin bear market has ended. What we can do is present the framework analysts are using to assess the question:

• Arguments for a bottom: the realised profit-to-loss ratio at 2022-lows, EMA reclaims, extreme fear sentiment, and the macro tailwind from soft NFP data all align with historical bottom signals
• Arguments for caution: June saw a record $4.5 billion in Bitcoin ETF outflows — structural selling pressure that hasn’t fully resolved. The CLARITY Act remains stalled in the US Senate. One weak jobs print doesn’t change the Fed’s inflation mandate
• Citigroup cut its 12-month bitcoin price target on 1 July 2026, citing the structural weakness in ETF demand and regulatory uncertainty (CoinDesk, 1 July 2026). Analyst targets are third-party views and speculative in nature

For context on how to think about volatile assets in a portfolio, see IG’s guide to top 5 mistakes investors make during market selloffs.

What are the risks to the recovery?

Even if the rally continues, several factors could test or reverse it:

• Fed repricing: if next month’s US CPI data comes in hotter than expected, rate hike bets will return and the macro tailwind reverses. The $60,400–$60,700 support zone is the key level to watch if that happens
• ETF flows: bitcoin’s recovery needs institutional buyers to return. Until Bitcoin ETF net flows turn positive again, the $4.5 billion supply overhang from June’s redemptions acts as a structural ceiling
• CLARITY Act: Senate progress on US crypto regulation remains the key medium-term catalyst. Continued delay suppresses institutional confidence
• AI stock correlation: if AI equities resume their sell-off, capital rotation back into crypto is less likely — the two markets competed for risk capital throughout H1 2026

Bitcoin rally summed up

• Bitcoin surged from $57,750 to $62,000 in under 48 hours after the US added just 57,000 jobs in June
• The NFP miss cut September Fed rate hike odds from ~65% to ~50%, reducing a key bitcoin headwind
• Technicals show EMA reclaims and a realised profit-to-loss ratio at 2022-lows — historically associated with cycle bottoms
• Arguments for caution: record ETF outflows in June ($4.5bn), CLARITY Act stall, and one data point not changing the Fed’s broader mandate
• Key risks: CPI data surprise, ETF flows failing to recover, AI stock competition, Senate regulatory delay
• Tax on profits from cryptoassets may apply. Seek independent financial advice for your own situation.

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