Bitcoin is down 53% from its all-time high — is now a good time to buy?

Bitcoin has had a brutal few months. After reaching an all-time high of $126,272 in October 2025, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has shed more than half its value — falling below the closely-watched $60,000 mark on 24 June 2026 for the first time since late 2024 (GuruFocus, June 2026).

The drop wasn’t caused by a single event. Several pressures converged at once. Here’s what happened, what the $60,000 level means, and what on-chain data shows right now.

What caused the bitcoin crash?

Four pressures hit simultaneously in late June 2026, amplifying an already fragile market:

• AI stock selloff: a sharp two-day decline in semiconductor and AI-related shares triggered a broad risk-off move. Bitcoin, as one of the most speculative assets, was sold first (Rio Times Online, June 2026)
• Record ETF outflows: Bitcoin ETFs saw ~$469 million exit in a single day on 24 June, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for ~$239 million. Total Bitcoin ETF net outflows over the past month reached ~$6.4 billion (CoinDesk, June 2026)
• Strategy’s Bitcoin sale: MicroStrategy parent company Strategy disclosed a small sale of its Bitcoin holdings — the first in years. Even a modest sale from the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder spooked sentiment and triggered cascading liquidations
• CLARITY Act delay: reports that the US CLARITY Act — the long-awaited crypto regulatory framework — could face further delays dented institutional conviction (Yahoo Finance, June 2026)

When ETF holders redeem shares, issuers must sell the corresponding Bitcoin to meet redemptions — creating mechanical selling pressure regardless of price. Combined with leveraged liquidations and long-term holder selling described by Compass Point Research as “a typical sign of late-cycle capitulation” (Yahoo Finance, June 2026), the result was a swift move through key support.

Why does $60,000 matter?

The $60,000 level isn’t just a round number. It has structural significance in Bitcoin’s derivatives market, which can amplify moves in either direction.

According to Deribit, over $1.2 billion in notional open interest sits at $60,000 strike put options (June 2026). Market makers on the other side of these trades are “short gamma” — meaning they’re compelled to sell spot Bitcoin or futures as the price approaches this level, which can accelerate a downside move.

Bitcoin fell 31.7% year-to-date and is 52.6% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,272. The $60,000 level hasn’t been a sustained close since late 2024. (GuruFocus, June 2026)

What do on-chain signals show?

Several widely-followed on-chain and market indicators have moved into zones that have historically been associated with market bottoms — though past patterns are never a guarantee of future outcomes:

• MVRV Z-Score: sitting at approximately 0.41, a level that has historically indicated undervaluation relative to on-chain cost basis (AhaSignals/Glassnode, June 2026)
• 200-week moving average: Bitcoin has tested this long-term support level, which has historically acted as a floor in prior bear cycles
• Daily RSI: recovering from deeply oversold territory
• Crypto Fear and Greed Index: in ‘Fear’ territory, indicating elevated negative sentiment
• Rainbow Chart: price sits in the ‘fire sale’ band — the lowest valuation zone on the model (Alternative.me, June 2026)

Cycle analysts at several research firms place the probable bottom in the October 2026 timeframe, consistent with the traditional four-year halving cycle. However, the halving cycle has shown signs of changing, and no model has a reliable forecasting record across all cycles.

Is now a good time to buy bitcoin?

This article does not constitute financial advice, and we’re not in a position to tell you whether to buy bitcoin. What we can offer is the framework most investors use when thinking about a sharp pullback in a volatile asset.

• On-chain signals suggest historically bottom-adjacent levels — but signals are not guarantees, and bitcoin has broken through similar levels before
• ETF outflows suggest institutional investors are not yet buying the dip at scale — that may change if macro conditions shift
• The CLARITY Act delay remains an overhang: regulatory clarity has historically preceded institutional re-engagement with crypto markets
• The correlation between bitcoin and tech stocks has collapsed in recent weeks (Wave Digital Assets, June 2026), complicating the ‘digital gold’ and ‘high-beta tech’ narratives simultaneously

If you’re considering crypto exposure, IG’s guide on what is crypto investing covers the key concepts for UK investors.

Bitcoin price drop summed up

• Bitcoin fell below $60,000 on 24 June 2026 — its lowest since late 2024 and 53% off its October 2025 all-time high
• Four drivers: AI stock selloff, record ETF outflows (~$6.4bn), Strategy selling, and CLARITY Act delay
• $60,000 has structural significance — $1.2bn in put options are clustered here, creating mechanical selling pressure
• On-chain signals sit at historically bottom-adjacent levels; cycle models point to October 2026 as the probable low
• No signal is a guarantee — bitcoin has broken through similar historical levels before
• Tax on profits from cryptoassets may apply. Seek independent financial advice for your own situation.

Frequently asked questions

Cryptoassets are highly volatile and largely unregulated. No consumer protection. Tax on profits may apply. You should be prepared to lose all the money you invest in cryptoassets. This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.