When may the gold price reach $5,000?
Fundamental and technical analysis of when the gold price may reach $5,000.
Unprecedented rally reaches fresh landmark
Precious metals have surged to record-breaking levels, with both gold and silver hitting new all-time highs as investors seek shelter from shifting monetary policy expectations and rising geopolitical uncertainty across global markets.
Gold has pushed close to $4,500.00 per ounce for the first time, extending a rally that has exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts. The strength of the move reflects growing conviction that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to maintain an accommodative policy stance and that central bank buying of the precious metal will continue into 2026.
Fed policy expectations fuel the advance
Recent economic indicators point to easing inflation pressures and a softening labour market, encouraging markets to price in two US interest-rate cuts next year.
Attention is now focused on the upcoming second estimate of third-quarter (Q3) US gross domestic product (GDP), which could provide further clarity on economic momentum and reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed outlook.
Lower interest rates generally support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets compared with interest-bearing instruments such as bonds.
Geopolitical tensions intensify safe-haven flows
Geopolitical developments have added another layer of support to precious metals. Reports suggest the United States is monitoring an additional vessel near Venezuela following the seizure of two tankers earlier this month, while Ukraine has conducted its first-ever strike on a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean.
These events have heightened concerns over global energy security and the stability of key trade routes, prompting renewed demand for safe-haven assets.
Gold is now up around 70% year-to-date, putting it on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979.
Institutional demand strengthens the trend
Beyond macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers, the rally has been reinforced by sustained central-bank buying and continued inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds. These trends point to enduring institutional confidence in gold as both a reserve asset and a portfolio diversifier.
Gold technical analysis
The gold price is on track for its fifth straight monthly gain whilst aiming for the psychological $5,000.00 mark. Judging by the steep ascent seen in the latter half of this year, it may be reached by the second quarter of 2026.
Gold monthly candlestick chart
The gold price’s swift end-of year advance has already pushed it higher by around $150.00 within a couple of days this week with the minor psychological $4,500.00 mark being firmly in sight.
Gold daily candlestick chart
While the gold price remains above its August-to-December uptrend line at $4,257.08, the short- and medium-term uptrends remain firmly entrenched.
As long as the precious metal price remains above its late October $3,886.47 low, the long-term bullish trend also remains in play.
Investment opportunities in precious metals
For investors looking to gain exposure to precious metals' historic rally or hedge against policy and geopolitical risks, several approaches are available.
- Research precious metals market dynamics, monetary policy implications, and safe-haven investment strategies to understand current drivers.
- Consider how gold and silver exposure fits within portfolio diversification and risk management objectives.
- Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
- Access the gold market through our platform, including spot prices and related securities.
- Implement appropriate position sizing given precious metals' potential for both continued gains and sharp corrections.
Spread betting and CFD trading provide flexible approaches for trading precious metals.
For longer-term exposure, investment in precious metals funds or mining companies offers alternative approaches to direct commodity exposure.
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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