UK housebuilders in focus as Bellway updates Tuesday and Persimmon reports Wednesday​

Critical week for housebuilder sentiment

​Bellway will deliver a trading update on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, covering the financial year to 31 July, putting the spotlight on reservation trends, incentives, and forward orders after a choppy summer for the sector.

​Persimmon follows with half-year results on Wednesday, 13 August 2025, where investors will parse margins, cash, and land discipline, alongside any read-through for build rates into autumn.

​This timing is particularly significant as the housebuilding sector seeks to demonstrate that recent improvements in mortgage affordability are translating into sustained demand recovery after a challenging period of market adjustment.

​The consecutive reporting schedule provides investors with an opportunity to assess whether the tentative signs of recovery evident in recent months are gaining momentum or whether structural challenges continue to constrain the sector's performance.

​These updates come at a crucial juncture for the UK housebuilding sector, which has faced significant headwinds from higher interest rates, planning delays, and increased regulatory costs over the past two years.

​Mixed signals from sector peers

​Peers have set a mixed backdrop for this week's updates. Barratt Redrow's 15 July trading update flagged discal year 2025 (FY25) home completions of 16,565, below prior guidance, even as average selling prices rose and a £100 million buyback was announced.

​The group still guided to meeting profit expectations and outlined FY26 volume ambitions, but shares wobbled on the miss, highlighting how sensitive the market remains to any signs that the recovery might be losing momentum.

​Berkeley Group last month reported £528.9 million FY25 pre-tax profit with strong cash and a high proportion of sales already secured for the current year, underscoring resilience at the premium end but continuing to warn about regulatory headwinds in planning and building-safety costs.

​These divergent experiences across the sector illustrate how company-specific factors including market positioning, land bank quality, and operational efficiency are creating varying outcomes even within the same challenging market environment.

​Mortgage market improvements provide tailwinds

​Macro currents remain pivotal for the sector's prospects. The Bank of England’s (BoE) fifth consecutive interest rate cut in a year, from 4.25% to 4% on Thursday, mortgage pricing has eased. Average two- and five-year fixed rates are converging around the mid-4% range compared with last year's higher levels - helpful for affordability and reservations.

​This improvement in mortgage affordability represents one of the most significant positive developments for the housebuilding sector in recent months, potentially unlocking pent-up demand from buyers who had been priced out during the peak rate environment.

​However, recent data also showed UK construction activity back in contraction, led by a fall in residential building, suggesting that the broader construction sector continues to face challenges despite improved financing conditions for homebuyers.

​The disconnect between improving mortgage affordability and continued construction sector weakness highlights the complex dynamics affecting the housing market recovery and the various factors beyond interest rates that influence building activity.

​Policy support provides longer-term optimism

​Policy signals are supportive in principle - Labour's drive toward 1.5 million new homes and planning reform - but the industry continues to debate the pace and consistency of delivery across different local authorities and regions.

​The government's ambitious housebuilding targets provide a clear policy framework that should benefit the sector over the medium term, though the practical implementation of planning reforms remains a work in progress.

​Housebuilders are cautiously optimistic about the potential for streamlined planning processes, but past experience suggests that meaningful reform takes time to filter through to actual development approvals and construction activity.

​The balance between ambitious housing targets and practical delivery capabilities will be a key theme for the sector as it navigates the transition from policy announcements to tangible changes in the planning and development process.

​Key metrics to watch across Bellway and Persimmon

​Against that backdrop, Bellway's commentary on weekly private reservations, cancellation rates, incentives, and the forward order book will shape sentiment across UK housebuilders. These operational metrics provide the most direct insight into current demand trends and customer behaviour.

​For Persimmon, investors will focus on gross margin versus incentives, cash returns, and any guidance on outlet openings and build cost deflation into the second half of the year (H2). The company's margin performance will be particularly important given ongoing cost pressures and competitive dynamics.

​Together, this week's updates should help investors gauge whether easing mortgage rates are starting to translate into steadier demand - or whether planning frictions and regulatory costs will keep the recovery uneven through the rest of 2025.

​The forward order book strength and reservation trends will be critical indicators of whether the sector can maintain momentum through the traditionally quieter autumn and winter periods.

​Bellway and Persimmon analyst ratings

​UK housebuilder shares have been greatly underperforming the FTSE 100's 10% gain since the beginning of the year with only Bellway trading in slightly positive territory.

UK housebuilders comparison chart

​Ahead of Bellway’s Tuesday trading update analysts rate its shares as a ‘buy’ with a mean long-term price target at 3,207 pence, 31% above the current share price (as of 11/08/2025).

Bellway LSEG Data & Analytics chart

​Bellway has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘7 Neutral’ and is rated as a ‘buy’ with 7 ’buy’ and 3 ‘hold’ recommendations (as of 11/08/2025).

Bellway TipRanks Smart Score chart

​According to LSEG Data & Analytics, the majority of analysts have a ‘buy’ rating for Persimmon with a mean long-term price target at 1,539 pence, 35% above the current share price (as of 11/08/2025).

Persimmon LSEG Data & Analytics chart

​Persimmon has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘7 Neutral’ but is rated as a ‘strong buy’ with 7 ’buy’ and 2 ‘hold’ recommendations (as of 11/08/2025). 

Persimmon TipRanks Smart Score chart

Bellway and Persimmon share price technical analysis

​Even though the Bellway share price is little changed year-to-date, it has been quite volatile, especially recently, rising by around 38% from April-to-June only to then slide by approximately 18% since then.

​Over the past month the Bellway share price has been trading within a downward trending channel with it currently weighing on its early August low at 2,446 pence. A fall through this minor support level could put the 2,400p region back on the map with the 2,300p area representing another possible downside target zone now that the Bellway share price is seen trading back below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 2,540p.

Bellway daily candlestick chart

​For a potential bullish reversal to gain traction a rise above the 24 July high at 2,634p would need to be seen. Only then could the February and May highs at 2,738p-to-2,822p be back in the frame.

​The daily Persimmon share price candlestick chart doesn’t look any brighter with it also evolving in a clearly defined downtrend from its eight-month 1,418p June peak. The around 19% share price decline from that high is taking the Persimmon share price close to its late July low at 1,132.5p. Failure there would put the April trough at 1,082p on the cards. If fallen through, the January low at 1,056p may also be revisited.

Persimmon daily candlestick chart

​Only a bullish reversal and rise above the 10 July high at 1,240.5p and the next higher 200-day SMA at 1,250p might change the medium-term negative outlook with the February peak at 1,330p representing a possible medium-term upside target in this scenario.

​Investment considerations for housebuilder exposure

​For investors considering exposure to the UK housebuilding sector, this week's results provide important data points for assessing the balance of risks and opportunities.

1. ​Research individual housebuilders' market positioning, land banks, and operational strategies to understand their different risk-reward profiles.
2. ​Consider how interest rate trends, government policy, and economic conditions might affect the sector's recovery trajectory.
3. ​Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. ​Access UK housebuilder stocks through our trading platform, including both Bellway and Persimmon shares.
5. ​Implement appropriate risk management given the cyclical nature of housebuilding stocks and their sensitivity to economic conditions.

​Share dealing provides direct exposure to the UK housing recovery story for long-term investors who believe in the structural demand drivers and policy support for increased housebuilding.

​Spread betting and CFD trading offer flexible approaches for trading around earnings announcements and policy developments affecting the housebuilding sector.

​The combination of improving mortgage affordability, supportive government policy, and attractive valuations creates a potentially compelling investment case for the housebuilding sector, though execution risks and regulatory challenges mean that stock selection and timing remain crucial for generating attractive returns.

​This week's updates from Bellway and Persimmon will provide valuable insights into whether the sector is positioned for sustained recovery or whether the path back to growth remains uneven and challenging.​​