Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 77% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Tesla share price: bull vs bear post-Q1 results

Tesla has yet again posted another quarter of record production, revenue, and profit. Where next for Elon Musk’s trillion-dollar trailblazer?

Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) share price trajectory has been fiercely contested by bulls and bears since the covid-19 pandemic began. And for every Cathie Wood, there’s a Craig Irwin.

After falling to $85 in March 2020, Tesla shares rocketed by 1,338% to a record $1,222 by November 2021. They then fell to $764 on 23 February, recovered to $1,145 on 4 April, and now hover at just over $1,000.

This longer-term perspective is important because while Q1 results were excellent, its effect on Tesla’s share price has been comparatively negligible.

Tesla shares: the bull case

Reporting another quarterly record revenue generation of $18.8 billion, up 81% year-over-year, Tesla smashed the Refinitiv average analyst estimate by $1 billion. Moreover, the EV manufacturer generated $3.3 billion in profits.

It also delivered 310,048 vehicles, another quarterly record, up 68% on Q1 2021. Further, CEO Elon Musk advised that production would ramp up by 60% to 1.5 million vehicles in 2022, after opening new Gigafactories in Berlin and Austin, Texas.

The CEO inspired that ‘the future is very exciting… I’ve never been more optimistic or excited about the future of Tesla than I am right now.’ He also claimed that Tesla will achieve fully self-driving vehicles this year and ‘volume production’ of its ‘robotaxi,’ with no steering wheel or pedals by 2024.

Musk also confirmed his ‘firm belief’ that the company’s in-development humanoid TeslaBot will eventually be ‘worth more than the car business of Tesla.’

The world’s wealthiest person signed a 2018 deal that meant he would ‘receive no guaranteed compensation of any kind – no salary, no cash bonuses, and no equity that vests by the passage of time.’ Instead, he opted to receive a $55.8 billion bonus if its market cap hit $650 billion by 2028, a target he hit eight years early.

And rumours abound that he could be creating a parent company to bring Tesla, SpaceX, Neuralink, and The Boring Company under one umbrella. With Tesla already a trillion-dollar company, the parent could well overtake Apple as the most valuable in the world.

This is the bull case: Tesla is not simply a car company, but a disruptive technology company that deserves its valuation on the merits of Musk’s managerial excellence and entrepreneurial spirit.

Tesla share price: the bear case

The supply chain crisis is the most immediate problem facing Tesla, as the pandemic, inflation and Ukraine war conspire to limit its manufacturing capacity. The company has warned that ‘factories have been running below capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through the rest of 2022.’

Of particular concern are the sky-high prices of EV and semiconductor-critical metals like cobalt, lithium, palladium, platinum, and nickel, production of which have all been hit hard by the war. Tesla has already been forced to raise prices.

The spotlight is also on its Shanghai Gigafactory, which has been caught in the fishnet of China’s zero-covid lockdown policy. Musk accepts that the company ‘did lose a lot of important days of production, but Tesla in Shanghai is coming back with a vengeance.’ However, Tesla has described the restart as one of ‘limited production,’ with employees reportedly sleeping on the plant’s floor.

Moreover, Tesla has warned some customers are facing a long waitlist, with many orders not arriving until 2023. And its global vehicle inventory has now fallen to a three-day supply, down from eight days in Q1 2021.

In addition, Musk has warned investors that despite his hopes for a fully autonomous car this year, ‘of any technology development I’ve ever been involved in, I’ve never really seen more kind of false dawns where it seems like we’re going to break through but we don’t.’

But the critical danger for Tesla is that its outsized valuation is based almost entirely on continued explosive growth.

If Tesla is best classed as a technology stock, just one quarter of stalled growth could be enough to sink its share price. Meta Platforms (Facebook) lost daily active users for the first time this year, and Netflix lost 200,000 subscribers this week. Despite both companies remaining market leaders in their respective sectors, their share prices have both fallen off a cliff.

And worryingly, Tesla delivered less than 1 million vehicles, accounting for just 1% of global car sales in 2021. For context, Toyota alone produced 7.5 million. And Tesla shares will soon be competing with every legacy manufacturer, as well as EV upstarts like NIO, Rivian, and Lucid.

The bulls and bears will continue to tussle.

Go short and long with spread bets, CFDs and share dealing on 16,000+ shares with the UK’s No.1 platform.* Learn more about trading shares with us, or open an account to get started today.

* Best trading platform as awarded at the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2021

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Act on share opportunities today

Go long or short on thousands of international stocks with spread bets and CFDs.

  • Get full exposure for a comparatively small deposit
  • Trade on spreads from just 0.1%
  • Get greater order book visibility with direct market access

See opportunity on a stock?

Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and see whether you’re on to something.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Take your position
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See opportunity on a stock?

Don’t miss your chance – upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Trade a huge range of popular stocks
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform

See opportunity on a stock?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take advantage while conditions prevail.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Equities
  • Indices
  • Forex
  • Commodities
website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

" edit-mode="false" style="--live-prices-table-rows:5" >


Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All share prices are delayed by at least 15 minutes.

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Sunday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.


For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of spread betting and CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.