​​Tesla analysts split as robotaxi optimism clashes with political and market risks​

Wall Street polarisation reaches new extremes

​Tesla's latest earnings season has left Wall Street more divided than ever, with analysts offering a wide range of upgrades and downgrades since July. While some see the stock poised for another leg higher on the back of robotaxi ambitions and artificial intelligence (AI), others warn of mounting risks tied to politics, profitability, and slowing electric vehicle (EV) demand.

​This unprecedented analyst division reflects the fundamental uncertainty surrounding Tesla's transformation from an EV manufacturer into what CEO Elon Musk describes as a robotics and AI company.

​The range of price targets and ratings demonstrates how difficult it has become to value a company that straddles multiple emerging technologies while facing challenges in its core automotive business.

​Investors must navigate this conflicting guidance while making decisions about a company whose future direction remains highly uncertain despite its established market position.

​Bullish analysts champion robotaxi potential

​In early July, Benchmark set the tone with one of the more optimistic calls, upgrading Tesla to a "Buy" and raising its price target from $350.00 to $475.00. The firm cited Tesla's early robotaxi rollout in Austin as a potential game changer, reinforcing the bull case that autonomy could unlock a fresh wave of growth.

​That enthusiasm was echoed later in the month by Wedbush's Daniel Ives, who reiterated his "Outperform" rating and $500.00 target multiple times in July, calling Tesla a once-in-a-generation AI and mobility play. Cantor Fitzgerald also maintained its positive stance with a $355.00 target, while RBC Capital in late July nudged its forecast higher, from $319.00 to $325.00.

​These bullish analysts view Tesla's autonomous driving technology and robotaxi potential as transformative opportunities that could fundamentally change the company's revenue model and market valuation.

​The focus on AI and robotics reflects a belief that Tesla's technological capabilities extend far beyond traditional automotive manufacturing, potentially creating entirely new high-margin business segments.

​Bears cite execution risks and fundamental challenges

​Not all on Wall Street share that optimism. William Blair downgraded Tesla to "Hold" in early July, warning that execution risks remain too high to justify chasing the stock after its recent rally.

​Goldman Sachs followed suit by cutting its price target from $315.00 to $285.00, citing concerns over softer demand and lingering margin pressures. GLJ Research maintained one of the most bearish views on the market, sticking to a "Strong Sell" rating and an aggressive downside target of just $19.00 per share.

​These more cautious voices were building on a trend that began in June, when Baird and Argus both cut their ratings on Tesla to neutral positions. Baird flagged growing scepticism over Elon Musk's political entanglements, particularly his public dispute with former President Trump.

​Argus similarly pointed to weakening EV demand, intensifying global competition, and what it called "too much uncertainty on too many fronts," highlighting the multiple challenges facing the company simultaneously.

​Fundamental performance adds to the debate

​Tesla's fundamentals have offered fuel to both sides of the debate. In its second-quarter (Q2) results, revenue fell 12% year-over-year (YoY) to $22.5 billion, sparking a nearly 9% drop in the stock.

​Yet investors continue to bet heavily on the company's longer-term narrative, which increasingly revolves around autonomy and robotics. Musk has repeatedly framed Tesla not just as an automaker, but as a technology company poised to redefine transport through robotaxis and its humanoid robot project, Optimus.

​The revenue decline reflects challenges in Tesla's core EV business, including increased competition, pricing pressures, and normalising demand growth after the initial EV adoption surge.

​However, supporters argue that focusing on current automotive metrics misses the transformative potential of Tesla's technology investments, which could create entirely new revenue streams and business models.

​Short-term headwinds compound analyst uncertainty

​Still, the short-term picture remains complicated. Morgan Stanley has trimmed earnings forecasts, citing an aging product lineup and intensifying competition from both legacy automakers and Chinese rivals.

​Mizuho has also slashed its price targets, warning of underperformance across all major regions, from the US to Europe and China. At the same time, some on Wall Street continue to believe Tesla is undervalued on its AI potential, with UBS and Cantor Fitzgerald among those keeping the faith.

​The geographic spread of challenges suggests that Tesla's difficulties are not limited to specific markets but reflect broader competitive and demand pressures affecting the company globally.

​The aging product lineup concern highlights Tesla's need to refresh its vehicle offerings while simultaneously investing in next-generation technologies, creating capital allocation challenges and execution risks.

​Consensus masks extraordinary price target range

​The result is a sharply polarised analyst landscape. LSEG Data & Analytics and MarketBeat data shows Tesla carrying a consensus "hold" rating, with an average 12-month price target of just over $303.00, implying modest downside from current levels. 

Tesla LSEG Data & Analytics chart

​According to TipRanks Tesla has a Smart Score of ‘6 Neutral’ and a ‘hold’ rating (as of 19/08/2025). 

Tesla TipRanks Smart Score chart

​But beneath that average lies an extraordinary spread - from deeply bearish forecasts under $20.00 to bullish scenarios that envision Tesla trading well north of $500.00.

​This extreme range of price targets is virtually unprecedented among major technology stocks and reflects the fundamental disagreement about Tesla's business model transition and execution capabilities.

​The wide dispersion of analyst views makes consensus metrics less meaningful than usual, requiring investors to form their own views about which scenario is most likely to materialise.

​Tesla technical analysis

​The Tesla share price, down 17% year-to-date, continues to oscillate around its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $326.92 and remains within its June-to-August sideways trading band.

​Tesla daily candlestick chart 

​While the Tesla share price remains below its May-to-June highs at $357.54-to-$367.71 but above its late March, April highs and May-to-August lows at $291.85-to-$271.00, further sideways trading is at hand.

​Since early August, the Tesla share price has been in a short-term uptrend but as of last week it is consolidating. A rise above the current August high at $348.98 would probably lead to the $357.54-to-$367.71 resistance zone being revisited.

​If bettered on at least a daily chart closing basis, the January peak at $439.74 may be back in the frame.

​Were a drop to take the Tesla share price to below its early May low at $271.00, though, a slip towards the March-to-April lows at $217.02-to-$214.25p may be on the cards instead.

​Investment considerations for Tesla shares

​For investors, Tesla's story remains as much about belief as it is about numbers. The company faces meaningful headwinds in its core EV business, even as it courts transformative opportunities in robotics and autonomy.

1. ​Research Tesla's technology roadmap, competitive positioning, and execution capabilities across both automotive and emerging technology segments.
2. ​Consider how your risk tolerance aligns with Tesla's volatility and the binary nature of its longer-term strategic initiatives.
3. ​Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. ​Search for 'Tesla Inc' or its ticker 'TSLA' on our trading platform or app.
5. ​Implement robust risk management given Tesla's high volatility and the uncertainty surrounding its strategic transformation.

​Spread betting and CFD trading provide flexible approaches for expressing views on Tesla's direction while managing the substantial volatility typical of the company's share price movements.

​For longer-term investors who believe in Tesla's transformation potential, share dealing offers direct ownership, though investors should be prepared for continued volatility as the company navigates its strategic transition.

​The question now is whether near-term risks - from politics to profitability - will derail Musk's vision, or if Tesla can once again defy sceptics and ride its next wave of innovation.

​The extraordinary range of analyst opinions reflects the genuine uncertainty about Tesla's future, making it essential for investors to understand both the transformative potential and the substantial execution risks inherent in the company's ambitious strategic agenda.