Strategy shares: why the Bitcoin treasury company is rallying so strongly

Strategy shares: why the Bitcoin treasury company’s share price doubled

Strategy has become one of the strongest-performing Bitcoin-linked equities over the past few months, with its shares more than doubling from their late-June lows as investors have returned to the company's aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.

The stock closed at $81.81 -  a 2 ¼ year low - on 26 June before sideways trading between this level and its $105.50 early August high for seven weeks, only to then break higher on the 19 and 20 August.

Strategy daily candlestick chart

The rally since then has so far taken the Strategy share price to a near four-month high at $169.52, representing a gain of more than 100% from the late-June levels.

The most obvious explanation is Bitcoin’s over 43% rise since then. But the scale of Strategy's move compared with the cryptocurrency itself reflects the company's unique structure: it is effectively a highly leveraged listed vehicle for gaining exposure to Bitcoin, while also using equity and preferred-stock financing to continue expanding its holdings.

Those looking to trade Strategy or other Bitcoin-linked equities can do so through spread betting or CFD trading, while longer-term investors can access shares through IG Invest or our share dealing service.

Bitcoin has changed the backdrop

The biggest catalyst has been the revival in Bitcoin after a difficult summer.

Bitcoin fell sharply during the middle of the year, putting pressure on Strategy's shares and raising questions about whether its model of continuously raising capital to buy more Bitcoin could work when the cryptocurrency was falling.

That dynamic has now reversed. Bitcoin climbed to $87,402.32 on 21 September, reaching its highest level since January, while Bitcoin-related equities rallied alongside it. Strategy gained 9% that day after rising 16% on the previous trading session.

The cryptocurrency's recovery is particularly important for Strategy because Bitcoin represents the overwhelming majority of the economic value underpinning the company. As the value of its Bitcoin holdings rises, the value of the assets supporting its equity and debt structure rises too.

But Strategy tends to move more sharply than Bitcoin. That is because shareholders are not simply exposed to the spot value of the company's coins: they are exposed to the residual value after debt and preferred securities, while Strategy has historically used capital-market financing to increase its Bitcoin holdings.

The result is a form of equity leverage.

The Bitcoin pile keeps getting bigger

Strategy's second-quarter results showed just how dramatically the company has transformed itself into a Bitcoin treasury vehicle.

At the end of July, it held 843,775 Bitcoin, representing a 25% increase in its holdings since the start of 2026. It had also raised $17.06bn through its at-the-market equity programmes during the year.

Since then, Strategy has continued to accumulate.

On 31 August it bought another 4,603 Bitcoin for approximately $369.7m at an average price of $80,318, taking its holdings to 845,050. Then, on 21 September, it announced the purchase of another 950 Bitcoin for $75.7m. That brought its total to 846,000 Bitcoin, acquired for approximately $63.8bn at an average price of $75,416 per coin.

That is an extraordinary concentration of Bitcoin. Strategy now holds around 4% of Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply, according to its own data.

For investors who believe Bitcoin has entered another sustained upcycle, that creates an obvious attraction: if Bitcoin appreciates substantially, the value of Strategy's underlying treasury rises accordingly.

The latest purchases have reassured investors

Perhaps just as important as the size of Strategy's holdings is the fact that the company has resumed buying Bitcoin after a period when the strategy appeared under pressure.

Strategy sold Bitcoin during the summer, including 1,690 BTC in early August for around $108.6m. The sales were part of a broader effort to maintain its financial reserves and support its preferred-stock obligations.

That had raised questions about whether the company's famous "buy Bitcoin" model was becoming constrained by the cost of servicing its growing capital structure.

The subsequent return to buying has helped to restore confidence.

The 4,603-Bitcoin purchase at the end of August was funded partly through the sale of newly issued MSTR shares. The latest 950-Bitcoin purchase, however, was funded from Strategy's existing dollar cash rather than a new MSTR issuance during that particular week.

For shareholders, the distinction matters because Strategy needs to balance Bitcoin accumulation against dilution and the obligations attached to its preferred securities.

The balance sheet is stronger than it was during the sell-off

Strategy has also spent much of 2026 trying to strengthen the financial structure supporting its Bitcoin strategy.

At its second-quarter results, the company said it had reduced convertible debt by 18% to $6.7bn, increased its USD Reserve and generated a 5% increase in Bitcoin per share. Its USD Reserve stood at $3.75bn at the end of July, which Strategy said provided more than two years of coverage for preferred dividends and interest obligations.

The reserve has subsequently grown further.

As of 20 September, Strategy reported a USD Reserve of $5.04bn and USD Cash of $1.05bn. It also had $6.7bn of debt and $14.3bn of preferred stock outstanding.

That liquidity gives investors greater confidence that the company can continue servicing its capital structure without being forced into large Bitcoin sales simply because of a temporary downturn in the cryptocurrency.

Strategy is becoming more than just a Bitcoin accumulator

Another reason for the improved sentiment is that Strategy has been developing a more sophisticated capital structure around its Bitcoin holdings.

Its STRC preferred stock, for example, has become a significant source of funding. Strategy said at its second-quarter results that STRC issuances had raised $7.53bn during 2026, up 254% year-on-year, while cumulative dividends paid across its preferred stock had reached $1.06bn.

Strategy is effectively building several layers of securities around its Bitcoin treasury: common equity, preferred shares, debt and the underlying Bitcoin itself.

That allows it to appeal to different types of investors and, potentially, raise capital even when issuing ordinary shares becomes less attractive.

The company has also established programmes to repurchase both MSTR and preferred securities when management considers them undervalued. On 21 September it announced a $174m repurchase of STRC preferred shares alongside its latest Bitcoin purchase.

Why Strategy can outperform Bitcoin on the way up

The central reason Strategy can rise faster than Bitcoin is the leverage built into its structure.

If the value of its Bitcoin holdings increases, the value attributable to common shareholders can rise disproportionately because debt and preferred securities have contractual claims ahead of common equity.

That can work in both directions, which explains why Strategy has historically been significantly more volatile than Bitcoin.

Recent trading illustrates this clearly. On 18 September, Strategy rose 16.4% while Bitcoin gained a much smaller amount, and on 21 September Strategy added another 9% as Bitcoin moved above $85,000.

The stock's volatility is substantial: Strategy's own data currently shows annualised 30-day historical volatility of more than 100%, compared with about 81% over one year.

Strategy weekly candlestick chart

This is therefore not simply a conventional technology stock benefiting from improving earnings. Its valuation is heavily influenced by Bitcoin, its capital structure and investor appetite for paying a premium to gain exposure to its Bitcoin treasury.

For those wanting to understand more about trading online and how leverage works in practice, our resources on what trading is and trading for beginners cover the key concepts in accessible detail.

Regulatory and institutional sentiment is helping too

The broader crypto environment has also improved.

Recent moves by US regulators towards clearer digital-asset rules have helped sentiment, while renewed institutional interest in Bitcoin has supported the underlying asset.

Bitcoin ETFs also recorded significant inflows around the latest rally, with JPMorgan estimating roughly $433m of inflows into major US Bitcoin ETFs on 18 September.

For Strategy, greater institutional acceptance of Bitcoin matters because the company's entire investment proposition depends on the cryptocurrency being treated increasingly as a mainstream financial asset rather than a niche speculative instrument.

The more credible Bitcoin becomes as an institutional asset, the easier it is for Strategy to argue that its capital-market structure represents a way for investors to obtain amplified exposure to it.

The key risk: the model works both ways

The sharp rise in MSTR also highlights the main risk.

Strategy's stock is not equivalent to owning Bitcoin. Investors are exposed to the company's debt, preferred-stock obligations, dilution from new equity issuance and the possibility that the shares trade at a shrinking premium to the value of the underlying Bitcoin.

Strategy's own metrics currently put the market's multiple of the value of its Bitcoin treasury — its mNAV — at around 1.22 times.

That premium is important. If investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin treasury companies fades, MSTR could fall even if Bitcoin itself remains relatively resilient, because the premium investors are willing to pay for Strategy's capital structure could contract.

Conversely, a sustained Bitcoin rally combined with continued successful capital raising could reinforce the premium and allow Strategy to continue accumulating Bitcoin.

What comes next?

Strategy's recent performance is therefore the product of several forces moving in the same direction: Bitcoin has recovered sharply, the company continues to hold an enormous Bitcoin treasury, its liquidity position has strengthened, it has demonstrated that it can continue raising capital and its preferred-stock structure is becoming a larger part of the financing model.

The latest purchase of 950 Bitcoin is particularly symbolic. After selling coins during the summer, Strategy is once again adding to its holdings, taking its stash to 846,000 Bitcoin.

That has reinforced the market's perception of Strategy as a high-beta Bitcoin play.

The critical issue from here is whether Bitcoin can sustain its recovery and whether Strategy can continue increasing Bitcoin per share without excessive dilution or balance-sheet strain. For now, the combination of a rising Bitcoin price and renewed confidence in Strategy's treasury model has created a powerful tailwind for MSTR.

But the same leverage that has helped propel the shares higher over the past few months means that a reversal in Bitcoin — or a compression in the premium investors place on Strategy's Bitcoin holdings — could have an amplified effect in the opposite direction.

How to trade Strategy shares

1. Do your research on Strategy, its Bitcoin holdings and the key risks ahead of trading
2. Decide whether you want to trade via spread betting or CFD trading, or invest for the longer term through IG Invest 
3. Open a trading account with us
4. Search for Strategy (MSTR) in our trading platform
5. Place your trade