Solana recovery gains momentum but needs to overcome resistance
Solana’s recovery phase is gathering pace, with the bullish scenario hinging on a break above $144.65 to unlock a move toward the $171.89 peak. A sustained reversal through major resistance could signal that SOL’s bulls are regaining control after months of downward pressure.
Solana recovery underway
In recent days, Solana's (SOL) has been under the spotlight as a surge in institutional interest - via exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows - intersects with persistent structural and market-sentiment pressures.
According to reports, Solana exchange-traded funds have drawn in nearly $400 million in November alone, continuing a streak of sustained inflows that stand out even as broader crypto markets struggle.
That influx of capital appears to have supported a sharp rebound in the SOL price: after dipping to around $122.00 last week, SOL climbed back towards the $140.00 region this week.
Nonetheless, many holders remain underwater. Apparently roughly 78% of SOL holders are reported to be “in loss,” underscoring the high volatility and risk as prices bounce.
Against this backdrop, Solana is entering what some analysts call a pivotal test. The renewed inflows and expanding institutional exposure may give SOL the chance to stabilise and build a recovery base.
However, the fact that a large proportion of holders carry losses - coupled with broader macroeconomic headwinds and lingering uncertainty across the crypto sector - means that any rally could remain fragile.
Looking ahead, the tension between new institutional demand (via ETFs) and the vulnerability of many retail investors will likely shape SOL’s near-term trajectory.
If inflows continue and market sentiment strengthens, Solana could see further support - but if pressure mounts (for example due to macroeconomic stress or renewed risk-off sentiment), the high share of holders at a loss could translate into fresh selling.
In short: over the last two weeks, Solana’s story has become one of contrasts - a strong institutional interest inflow at the same time as widespread holder losses, leaving SOL at a critical crossroads between recovery and renewed volatility.
Solana bearish scenario:
Despite its recent recovery, SOL remains in a medium-term downtrend and will continue to do so as long as no rise and daily chart close above the 11 November high at $171.89 is seen.
Even for the short-term trend to point upwards, a rise and daily chart close above the 20 November high at $144.65 would need to be seen.
While remaining below the $144.65 high, the risk of revisiting the key $146.05-to-$137.27 support zone remains in play. If fallen through, the June low at $126.12 may be reached.
Solana bullish scenario:
Only a bullish reversal and rise above 20 November high at $144.65 may put the 11 November peak at $171.89 on the map.
In this scenario the October-to-November resistance line around $158.00 would also have been breached - a positive sign for the bulls. The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $179.24 may then also be reached.
For the bulls to be fully in control, a rise and daily chart close above the early November peak at $189.07 is needed.
Solana daily candlestick chart
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