S&P 500 slips further while USD/JPY bounces off support and silver price hits new record
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 as it slips further while USD/JPY bounces off support and silver hits new record high.
Macro update
US equities mixed:
The Nasdaq 100 edged higher, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones slipped as losses in healthcare and energy outweighed gains elsewhere, leaving Wall Street directionless ahead of further data.
Sector pressure:
Energy stocks fell nearly 3% as oil slid to its lowest level since 2021, while healthcare declined after Pfizer cautioned on its 2026 outlook and Humana signalled management changes.
Jobs and data in focus:
November payrolls rebounded by 64,000, but unemployment rose to 4.6% and retail sales were flat, reinforcing the view that recent data remains distorted by the government shutdown.
Rate expectations diverge:
Markets are pricing more than 58 basis points of US rate cuts next year, well above the 25 basis points indicated by the Federal Reserve (Fed) last week, keeping policy uncertainty elevated.
Asia finds its footing:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rebounded as technology stocks tracked Nasdaq gains, though caution persists ahead of a widely expected Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike and guidance on the pace of tightening in 2026.
UK inflation update:
UK headline inflation eased to 3.2% in November from 3.6%, reducing pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) and strengthening expectations of an interest-rate cut this week.
S&P 500 drops further still
The S&P 500 keeps sliding from last week's 6,903 high but found interim support along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 6,760. While it holds, a recovery towards the 6,900 region may unfold.
A fall through 6,760 may take the index back towards the 6,700 area, though.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 11 December 6,903 high
Medium-term outlook: neutral while above 6,522 November low but below its 6,920 October peak
S&P 500 daily candlestick chart
USD/JPY bounces off support
USD/JPY's retracement from last week's ¥156.95 high seems to have ended at this week's ¥154.40 low, made marginally above the ¥154.35 early December low.
A bounce off this support zone is now underway with the ¥157.00 region being back in play, ahead of the ¥157.89 November peak. A rise above this level will likely engage the ¥158.20-to-¥158.55 January highs.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 5 December low at ¥154.35
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 5 December low at ¥154.35
USD/JPY daily candlestick chart
Silver trades in new record highs
The price of silver hit yet another record high, this time at $66.53 per troy ounce, above the 261.8% Fibonacci extension target at $65.98.
It can be measured by taking the distance from the March 2020 low to the February 2021 high, multiplying it by 2.618 and then projecting that number from the September 2022 low.
Further up beckons the psychological $70.00 mark.
Minor support can be spotted at the 12 December $64.6656 high and along the November-to-December support line at $62.2434.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 12 December low at $60.7996
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 4 December low at $56.4590
Silver daily candlestick chart
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