S&P 500 finds support, EUR/GBP remains under pressure while silver rally stalls  

Macro update

Bitcoin breaks $80,000 on debasement trade: The cryptocurrency topped that level for the first time since mid-May, pushing its monthly gains to almost 30%, while gold slipped 0.2% to $4,640.39 an ounce, pulling back from an earlier three-month peak.

Iran sanctions warning underwhelms: The Trump administration cautioned countries to cut business ties with Iran or face secondary penalties—dubbed an "economic D-Day"—but stopped short of announcing specific measures or targets, leaving markets largely unfazed.

Dollar strengthens on access concerns: The greenback gained as fears over potential exclusion from the dollar-based financial system fuelled speculation of pre-emptive dollar buying by countries and banks, pushing the dollar index up 0.1% to 99.07 and the Canadian dollar to C$1.3860.

Treasury buyback talk calms bonds: Yields pulled back from recent highs following reports the Treasury may use its cash balance to repurchase longer-dated debt, though the relief was limited—the 10-year yield climbed back to 4.710% while the 2-year held flat at 4.246%.

Oil stabilizes after steep drop: Brent rebounded to $92.44 a barrel and US crude rose to $85.38, recovering some of the prior session's 2% decline, as traders concluded economic pressure on Iran posed less risk to physical supply than a military strike would.

Nvidia earnings in focus: Shares were subdued in Asia and US index futures were mixed ahead of Wednesday's results, with analysts expecting quarterly revenue to nearly double to around $92bn - while questioning whether growth fuelled by circular AI deals is sustainable.

S&P 500 finds minor support

The S&P 500 seems to have found support around last week's 7,639 low. For another up leg to be seen, though, at the very least Friday's high at 7,697 would need to be overcome. A rise above the next higher minor resistance at the 6 August 7,698 low may then push the 11 August low at 7,717 and the 19 August high at 7,744 to the fore.

Failure at Monday's 7,638 would likely lead to a slide to the June peak at 7,621 being reached, below which lies more significant support between the mid-June-to-mid-July highs at 7,581-to-7,578.

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish bias while above the 24 August low at 7,638

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9 June low at 7,238

S&P500 daily candlestick chart

EUR/GBP under pressure

EUR/GBP is seen slipping back towards support between the mid-July high, late July and current August lows at £0.8545-to-£0.8532. This area is expected to once again hold, though. If not, the June 2025 and 10 July lows at £0.8509 may be revisited.

For the cross to resume its bullish trajectory from late July, a rise and daily chart close above the July-to-current August highs at £0.8585-to-£0.8588 would need to be witnessed. If so, the 24 June low at £0.8603 would be back in sight, followed by the April-to-June lows at £0.8615-to-£0.8620.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the July high at £0.8588

Medium-term outlook: neutral while trading below the July high at £0.8588 but above the 12 August low at £0.8532

EUR/GBP daily candlestick chart

Silver rally stalls

The price of Silver, having risen by around 26% from its mid-July $54.7760 low, is taking a breather below the psychological $70 mark. Minor support around the 12 August high at $66.8025 may be revisited before the recent advance continues.

A rise and daily chart close above last week's $70.0230 high may engage the mid-June high at $71.5641 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $72.1076.

Short-term outlook: neutral with a bullish undertone while below the 21 August high at $70.0230

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 19 August low at $62.5645

Silver daily candlestick chart