S&P 500 bounces off uptrend line as EUR/GBP drops, silver price range trades

​​​Macro update

​US jobs report in focus: September non-farm payrolls are expected to show employment growth slowing to around 90,000 from 162,000 in August, while unemployment is forecast to hold at 4.1%. The figures will be closely watched for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.

​Treasury yields stay elevated: The US 10-year yield briefly climbed to 5.34%, its highest level since 2002, before retreating towards 5.25%. Higher oil prices, persistent inflation concerns and fiscal pressures continue to weigh on global bond markets.

​Asian stocks remain under pressure: Asian equities fell ahead of the US employment data, with Hong Kong shares particularly weak and Japanese stocks also declining. Recent bond-market volatility and a stronger dollar are keeping investors cautious.

​Dollar climbs to 17-month high: The US currency extended its advance as investors favoured the greenback amid the global bond sell-off and concerns over European fiscal risks. Sterling and the euro both weakened, with the euro falling to its lowest level since May 2025.

​Oil holds above $100: Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel as Middle East tensions and uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations kept supply concerns elevated. Higher energy prices are also adding to inflation pressures and weighing on bond markets.

​Gold remains under pressure: Gold slipped towards $4,155 an ounce and was heading for a second consecutive weekly decline as a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields reduced demand for the non-yielding metal. The US jobs report represents the next major test for its near-term direction.

​S&P 500 bounces off uptrend line

​The S&P 500 tested but managed to bounce off its March-to-October uptrend line at 7,617. While this remains the case, the 7,750-to-7,780 region may be revisited. If overcome, a new record above the mid-August peak at 7,816 may be formed.

​Good support below this week's low at 7,617 lies between the June-to-July highs and 10 September low at 7,581-to-7,573. If slipped through, the September low at 7,508 may be retested.

​Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 30 September high at 7,723

​Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish bias while above the September low at 7,508

S&P 500 daily candlestick chart

​EUR/GBP falls out of bed

EUR/GBP has dropped by over a percentage point from last Friday's £0.8612 high and has so far reached minor support at its 10 July £0.8509 low. Further down beckons the 20 July low at £0.8483, a fall through which may lead to the July trough at £0.8455 being reached.

​Resistance may now be spotted around the mid-August low at £0.8532 ahead of the mid-July high, late July and late August lows at £0.8543-to-£0.8547.

​Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 30 September high at £0.8569

​Medium-term outlook: bearish now that the 12 August low at £0.8532 has given way; this will remain the case while no bullish reversal takes the cross above its 30 September high at £0.8569

EUR/USD daily candlestick chart

​Silver hovers above minor support

​Silver's fall through its key $63.2765-to-$61.0065 support zone has taken it to this week's low at $59.9580, above which it is range trading. Were this level to give way, the $58.0000 region may be revisited.

​Good resistance now sits between the July high and the mid-August-to-mid-September lows at $62.3100-to-$63.3093. 

​Short-term outlook: neutral with a bearish undertone while below the 25 September high at $65.0905

​Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 9 September high at $68.3265

Silver daily candlestick chart