Ocado earnings preview: Can the online grocer balance growth with profitability?
Ocado reports full-year 2025 results on 26 February, with investors focused on retail sales growth, technology division progress and margin improvement.
Ocado earnings preview: Can the online grocer balance growth with profitability?
Ocado Group is set to release its full-year 2025 results on 26 February 2026, a key event for investors tracking the online grocery pioneer's performance across both its Ocado Retail business and its Ocado Solutions technology division.
After a period of mixed results influenced by investment in technology, supply-chain expansion and macro-driven shifts in consumer behaviour, the upcoming earnings will provide vital insight into whether Ocado's strategy is beginning to deliver more consistent profitability and long-term growth.
Ocado is expected to report significantly lower revenue and pre-tax profit, and slightly less negative earnings per share (EPS) compared to full-year 2024 results.
Revenue:
£1.33 billion, nearly 58% below its FY 2024 £3.16 billion result.
Pre-tax loss:
£229.1 million, nearly 40% lower than the FY 2024 £379.3 million loss.
EPS:
-35.7 pence, around 23% lower than last year’s -46.2.
Mixed signals from recent trading updates
Ocado’s most recent trading update and interim results paint a nuanced picture.
On the one hand, the group has continued to grow sales at Ocado Retail (its UK grocery-fulfilment business), with contributions from new customer acquisitions, improvements in active customer retention and the addition of new delivery capacity.
On the other hand, structural investment in automation, warehouse capacity and Ocado Solutions (the company’s B2B technology and fulfilment-systems arm) has weighed on margins.
Analysts will be assessing how these two forces - scale delivery growth versus investment drag - balance out in the FY25 results.
Analyst ratings and technical analysis
Analysts are split when it comes to rating Ocado. According to LSEG Data & Analytics, 3 analysts rate the share as a ‘strong buy’, 4 as a ‘buy’, 5 a ‘hold’, 3 a ‘sell’ and 1 a ‘strong sell’ with a mean long-term price target at 270.85p.
Ocado LSEG Data & Analytics chart
TipRanks rates Ocado as a ‘1 Underperform’ and as a ‘sell’.
Ocado TipRanks Smart Score chart
This negative rating is reflected in the Ocado share price which is flat since the beginning of the year and has slipped by around 25% over the past year.
The Ocado share price did find support around its September 2025 at 202.9p low in early February. While this level and the psychological 200p mark hold on a daily chart closing basis, further sideways trading is likely to remain in play.
Last week’s daily chart close above the 9 February high at 238.0p is encouraging for the bulls as it may point towards a rise towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 255.2p unfolding.
Ocado daily candlestick chart
From a longer-term perspective a rise and weekly chart close above the 299.3p January peak would need to be seen, though, for the long-term downtrend to be negated and for the April 2025 peak at 320.6p to be back in the picture.
Ocado weekly candlestick chart
Revenue performance by segment crucial
A central focus of the review will be revenue performance by segment. Ocado Retail benefits from strong brand awareness and an expanding customer base in the UK, with growing average order values and improved repeat purchase metrics helping to underpin topline momentum. However, Ocado faces ongoing competition in grocery from both traditional supermarkets and other online players, making net sales growth a key barometer of how well the business retains and expands its market share.
Ocado Solutions holds long-term promise
Ocado Solutions - which sells warehouse automation, robotics and fulfilment-software solutions to international grocery and retail partners - remains critical to the company’s long-term growth story.
Investors will be watching for evidence that existing contracts are progressing on schedule and that new agreements are being won with large retailers who are increasingly focused on robotic fulfilment and omni-channel solutions.
The timing and revenue recognition of these technology contracts can be lumpy, and the earnings report should help clarify the pipeline conversion rate - that is, deals signed versus deals commercially realised in revenue.
Profitability remains elusive
Profitability metrics will be under particular scrutiny. Historical results have shown that Ocado’s operating and net profit figures can be volatile, often reflecting investment timing rather than underlying trading strength.
The full-year figures will be evaluated for underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) trends and whether there are signs of margin improvement as fixed costs are absorbed by higher sales volumes.
Cash flow and balance sheet health
Free cash flow and balance-sheet health remain important. Ocado has invested heavily in automation and new customer fulfilment centres, and cash flow trends help indicate whether the business is entering a phase of self-sustaining growth or remains dependent on funding to fuel expansion.
Commentary from management on working capital, capex guidance and expected capital returns (if any) will be watched by investors who are balancing growth potential with capital discipline.
Guidance shapes forward expectations
Guidance for FY26 will be another focal point that may influence share price reaction. Given the operating leverage inherent in Ocado's model - where incremental sales can disproportionately benefit margins once infrastructure is in place - investors will be sensitive to any indications of scaling benefits in the coming year, as well as risks tied to competitive price pressure or slowing consumer demand.
Macro headwinds affect operations
Broader macroeconomic conditions - including cost inflation in logistics, fuel and labour - will also play into interpretations of the results. Grocery delivery economics are tight in many markets, and any commentary on cost pass-through, price changes or efficiency gains will help signal whether Ocado can maintain momentum without sacrificing customer value proposition.
Cost pressures facing Ocado
Several expense categories create margin challenges:
- Fuel and energy costs for delivery fleet and warehouses
- Labour expenses for pickers, packers and delivery drivers
- Depreciation on warehouse automation equipment
- Technology development and maintenance costs
- Marketing expenses for customer acquisition
What the full-year results mean for investors
In summary, Ocado’s 26 February 2026 full-year results offer a key window into how the company is navigating the twin priorities of growth and profitability.
Strong segment revenues, improving margins and constructive guidance could signal that the scaling of both Ocado Retail and Ocado Solutions is translating into durable financial progress.
Conversely, persistent margin pressure or cash-flow constraints could reignite concerns about the sustainability of the investment-intensive strategy amid intensifying competition in online grocery and fulfilment technology.
How to invest in Ocado shares
Investors interested in UK online grocery and retail technology exposure through Ocado have several options. Here's how to approach investing:
- Research Ocado's latest results, competitive positioning and online grocery market trends thoroughly.
- Understanding warehouse automation economics and retail logistics helps inform investment decisions. How to invest in stocks provides useful background.
- Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account to access UK-listed shares. Ocado trades on the London Stock Exchange under ticker OCDO.
- Search for Ocado Group shares on the trading platform. Review current pricing, analyst recommendations and recent news before making investment decisions.
- Choose the number of shares or value of money you'd like to invest based on your portfolio allocation strategy. Consider whether to hold shares in a general account, individual savings account (ISA) or self-invested personal pension (SIPP) for tax efficiency.
- Place your trade and monitor your investment over time. Ocado provides quarterly trading updates and half-yearly results, offering regular insight into operational performance.
Remember that Ocado represents a growth stock with execution risks and profitability uncertainty. Diversification across multiple sectors and companies reduces concentration risk whilst maintaining exposure to online retail and automation themes.
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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