NEXT Q4 sales preview: crucial Christmas trading period under scrutiny
The fashion retailer reports Q4 sales on 6 January after upgrading full-year guidance to £6.87bn, with investors watching whether Christmas momentum validates optimism.
Critical milestone approaches for retail bellwether
NEXT is preparing to release its fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 sales and revenue figures, a key milestone in the group's financial calendar that will shed light on how the retailer's performance has carried through the critical autumn and Christmas trading periods.
Although the official trading statement for Q4 is scheduled for 6 January 2026, investors and analysts are already forming expectations based on recent quarterly updates.
And revised full-year guidance that has been upgraded multiple times throughout the year.
In its third quarter (Q3) trading statement for the 13 weeks to 25 October, NEXT reported solid growth in full price sales.
Strong Q3 momentum underpins optimism
Year-to-date results showing underlying momentum across both its domestic and international segments provided confidence.
Full price sales - which include revenue from NEXT's retail stores, online channels and NEXT Finance interest income - grew by about 10.8% over the 39 weeks to late October.
With particularly strong contributions from international markets and digital commerce channels outpacing traditional UK retail.
This strong performance underpinned the company's decision to again revise its expectations for the full year upward.
Guidance upgraded on operational strength
In late October, NEXT revised its full-year 2025/26 sales and earnings guidance, with the company now expecting Total Group sales of around £6.87 billion, up from previous forecasts of £6.72 billion, and an upgraded outlook for profit reflecting continued resilience.
The guidance upgrade suggests that the retail business has been able to capitalise on stronger than expected demand in key categories and is managing cost headwinds more effectively than anticipated across its operations.
Omnichannel model drives competitive advantage
NEXT's omnichannel model - a blend of physical stores, a large online presence and third-party brand hosting via its Label platform - remains a core strength.
Helping the group sustain sales growth even as high-street footfall shifts and consumer preferences evolve toward digital channels.
Online sales, especially from international markets, have been a major driver of this growth, outpacing UK retail and broadening NEXT's revenue base beyond its traditional UK customer footprint into new geographical markets.
Christmas period provides crucial test
The forthcoming Q4 sales release will be particularly important because it covers the run-up to and through the Christmas and New Year periods.
Historically pivotal for fashion and homeware retailers who generate substantial portions of annual profits during this season.
Analysts will closely monitor whether the year's strongest seasonal demand translated into continued full price sales growth, whether markdown pressure remained contained and how inventory and clearance levels behaved relative to expectations and planning.
Fundamental analysts rate NEXT as a ‘hold’ and have a long-term mean price target at 14,284.21 pence, around 5% above the current share price (as of 31/12/2025).
NEXT LSEG Data & Analytics chart
NEXT has a TipRanks score of ‘7 Neutral’ but a ‘buy’ rating.
NEXT TipRanks Smart Score chart
Consumer spending insights valuable
Insight into how consumer discretionary spending held up during the peak trading weeks will be valuable, especially against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty in the UK economy affecting household budgets.
Investors will take note not only of the headline sales figures but of segment trends across different parts of the business. including the performance of UK retail stores versus online channels, the contribution of NEXT Finance, and international digital strategy momentum.
NEXT technical analysis
The NEXT share price - up 40% year-to-date – has risen by over 130% in the past three years but dipped by around 7% from its November 14,635 pence record high.
NEXT monthly candlestick chart
The area around the June peak at 13,100p has offered support, though, with the uptrend remaining firmly entrenched.
Only a significant bearish reversal and fall through the 11,200p September low could indicate that a top may be forming. Even then the 2022-to-2025 uptrend would remain intact.
Over the past couple of months the NEXT share price has been gradually sliding within a downtrend channel but as long as the mid-December trough at 13,125p underpins, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to remain intact.
NEXT daily candlestick chart
A rise above the downtrend channel resistance line at 13,960p and, more importantly, the early December peak at 14,335p is needed, for new record highs to be in sight with the psychological 15,000p region representing a possible upside target for 2026. Such an advance would represent a 10% rise in the NEXT share price from current levels (as of 31/12/2025).
Investment considerations for retail leader
For investors considering NEXT ahead of the 6 January Q4 sales release, the company's track record of accurate guidance makes this update particularly significant.
- Research NEXT's omnichannel strategy, international expansion progress, and Label platform development to understand competitive advantages.
- Consider how Christmas trading performance might validate or challenge the upgraded full-year guidance.
- Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
- Search for 'NEXT plc' or its ticker 'NXT' on our trading platform or app.
- Consider appropriate risk management given retail sector sensitivity to consumer confidence.
Share dealing provides direct exposure to NEXT's omnichannel retail model.
Spread betting and CFD trading offer flexible approaches for trading around updates.
NEXT's Q4 sales and revenue figure will be a crucial indicator of how far the company has realised the promise signalled in recent updates.
Important to know
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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