NEXT: anticipation builds ahead of trading update

​​​Market focus intensifies on retail bellwether

​NEXT, one of the UK's most closely watched retailers, is preparing to deliver its next trading update on Thursday the 18th of September, and market attention is intense. The company has a reputation for clear guidance and disciplined forecasting, often managing expectations with a degree of precision unusual in the retail sector.

​This makes every update an event in itself, particularly in an environment where consumer confidence remains fragile and discretionary spending is under strain.

​NEXT's reputation for reliability and transparent communication has made it a key barometer for the broader UK retail sector, with investors using its performance as a proxy for consumer health.

​The company's disciplined approach to guidance and inventory management has historically provided stability in an otherwise volatile sector, making its updates particularly valuable for understanding retail trends.

​Resilience demonstrated amid challenging conditions

​In recent quarters, NEXT has shown resilience in the face of inflationary headwinds, higher interest rates and shifting consumer patterns. Its online operations continue to form a substantial part of the business, giving the retailer flexibility at a time when traditional high street sales remain volatile.

​The integration of third-party brands into its platform has also provided a useful cushion, creating a "total platform" strategy that enables NEXT to expand its reach beyond its own labels and into a wider marketplace model.

​Analysts and investors will be keen to see whether this strategy continues to deliver incremental growth as consumer budgets tighten and shopping behaviour becomes more selective.

​The platform approach allows NEXT to benefit from commission income and reduced inventory risk while expanding customer choice, potentially improving both revenue and margin characteristics.

​Inventory management and pricing power under scrutiny

​The upcoming trading statement will likely focus on the balance between full-price sales, discounting activity and margin control. NEXT has historically excelled at inventory management, but the retail climate has become increasingly unpredictable.

​Shoppers are trading down in some categories while still prioritising certain discretionary spends, making forecasting more difficult and requiring more sophisticated demand planning.

​Investors will want clarity on whether NEXT has been able to maintain its tight control of stock and whether its pricing power is holding up against broader competition from both online and physical retailers.

​The company's ability to minimise markdowns while clearing seasonal inventory will be crucial for maintaining the margin discipline that has been central to its investment appeal.

​Forward guidance holds key to sentiment

​Another focal point will be forward guidance. In its previous update, the company struck a cautiously optimistic tone, trimming forecasts slightly while emphasising operational discipline.

​Since then, UK inflation has eased modestly and expectations for interest rate cuts have grown, raising the possibility that consumer spending may improve in the latter half of the year.

​Whether NEXT acknowledges this shift in its outlook, or instead maintains a conservative stance, will be a key driver of investor sentiment and share price reaction.

​The company's guidance carries particular weight given its track record of accuracy, making any changes to outlook particularly significant for sector sentiment.

​Broader market implications

​The retailer's reputation for reliability means that a trading update which confirms steady performance could be enough to reassure the market and support the share price.

​However, investors will be especially attentive to any revisions to profit guidance, as even small changes have historically triggered outsized market reactions from a company known for conservative forecasting.

​Given the company's weight in the retail sector, NEXT's update will also serve as a bellwether for broader UK high street health, with other retailers likely to be judged against the benchmark it sets.

​The ripple effects of NEXT's performance often extend beyond the company itself, influencing sentiment toward the entire UK retail sector and consumer discretionary spending trends.

​NEXT analyst rating and share price technical analysis

​Analysts rate NEXT between a ‘buy’ and a ‘hold’ with a mean long-term price target at 12,851, around 7% higher than current levels (as of 16/09/2025). 

NEXT LSEG Data and Analytics chart

​TipRanks has a Smart Score of ’10 Outperform’ – its highest rating – for NEXT and rates the share as a ‘buy’.

NEXT TipRanks Smart Score chart

​The NEXT share price - up close to 25% year-to-date – has been sideways trading with a bearish bias since July and recently bounced off its 11,590p early August low but has been capped around its 21 August 12,335p high.

​NEXT daily candlestick chart

​While the August-to-September lows at 11,615p-to-11,590p underpin, and the August-to-September highs at 12,335p-to-12,345p cap, further sideways trading within these boundaries remains in play.

​A bullish breakout above the 12,335p-to-12,345p resistance zone remains more likely than a fall through the 11,615p-to-11,590p support zone, though, since the long-term trend is still pointing upwards.

​Were such a bullish break of resistance to be seen, the late June and late July highs at 12,595-to-12,615, would be back in sight. Further up the June peak may be spotted at 13,100.

​A drop through the 11,615p-to-11,590p support area may put the September 2024 peak at 11,105p back on the cards.

​NEXT weekly candlestick chart 

​Investment considerations for NEXT shares

​As the date approaches, NEXT finds itself in a familiar position: under scrutiny not just for its own performance, but for what it says about the state of the consumer economy at large.

1. ​Research NEXT's business model, competitive positioning, and track record of navigating retail cycles to understand the investment opportunity.
2. ​Consider how consumer spending trends, economic conditions, and competitive pressures might affect the company's performance.
3. ​Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. ​Search for 'NEXT plc' or its ticker 'NXT' on our trading platform or app.
5. ​Consider appropriate position sizing given the potential for significant market reaction to guidance changes.

​Share dealing provides direct exposure to NEXT's dividend yield and retail recovery story for long-term investors who believe in the company's operational excellence.

​Spread betting and CFD trading offer flexible approaches for trading around earnings announcements and retail sector developments.

​Whether the message is one of continued resilience or a warning of tougher times ahead, the trading update will be carefully parsed across the market as investors seek insights into both NEXT's specific performance and the broader health of UK consumer spending patterns.