Netflix earnings preview: focus shifts from subscribers to monetisation
The streaming giant reports on 21 October with 17% revenue growth expected as the company pivots toward engagement metrics and ad revenue expansion.
Strategic pivot toward engagement and monetisation
Netflix heads into its upcoming earnings report on Tuesday 21st of October amid a turning point in its corporate narrative: the company is shifting emphasis away from quarterly subscriber disclosures toward deeper engagement and monetisation metrics.
Under this evolving framework, investors will pay close attention to topline growth, margin improvement, ad revenue traction, and content performance rather than traditional subscriber count metrics.
Over the past several quarters, Netflix has delivered solid revenue growth driven by a combination of selective price increases, expansion of its ad-supported tier, and continued international traction.
In the second quarter (Q2) 2025, Netflix reported revenue of about $11.08 billion, up roughly 16% year-over-year (YoY), demonstrating sustained momentum.
Strong growth expectations for Q3
For third-quarter (Q3) 2025, Netflix is expected to see a 17% increase in its revenue to $11.51 billion YoY, a near 30% rise in its pre-tax profit to $3.50 billion, and 29% increase in its earnings per share (EPS) to $6.97.
The company also expects to announce healthy membership growth, further price hikes, and more than "doubling" of ad revenue from roughly $306 million to $662 million.
Because Netflix has announced that it will cease reporting quarterly subscriber counts in 2025, it is instead focusing on milestone updates and engagement metrics.
In its Q2 2025 earnings, Netflix highlighted strong engagement growth - with viewing hours and active account usage both rising YoY.
Advertising tier drives new revenue model
One of the most dynamic shifts in Netflix's model is the ascent of its advertising tier. As of mid-2025, roughly 94 million users were estimated to be on the ad-supported plan - representing a substantial share of its user base.
With ad revenue expected to double in 2025, the timing of Netflix's in-house ad tech platform, and the effectiveness of ad monetisation per user will be key areas of scrutiny.
At the same time, growth in its ad tier must avoid cannibalising higher-ARPU subscription plans, creating a delicate balance in tier management.
The successful scaling of advertising revenue could fundamentally alter Netflix's business model and reduce dependence on subscription price increases for revenue growth.
Content strategy emphasises global diversity
On the content front, Netflix has continued to lean into strong franchises, international originals, and bold experimentations. Analysts see content strength as a lever to drive both engagement and retention.
The company's global "local for local" strategy is accelerating; more than half of its catalogue in recent periods is non-English, with increases in Korean, Indian, and regionally anchored content.
Moreover, Netflix is pushing into live and event-based content (such as sports and special events) as a way to heighten appointment viewing and ad monetisation potential.
The market is also watching the upcoming Q3 earnings and the release of Stranger Things Season 5, both expected to provide catalysts for subscriber and engagement growth.
Margin expansion crucial for valuation
Margin expansion and free cash flow generation will likely take centre stage this quarter. Netflix must show that its higher costs - in content production, marketing, and technology investments - are being offset by stronger monetisation.
Its success in ad monetisation, in particular, will influence investor perception of the sustainability of its business model, especially as subscriber growth becomes a less visible metric.
One notable strategic move is Netflix's push into gaming, particularly with plans to roll out TV-based video games during the upcoming holiday season.
This diversifies its engagement model beyond pure video streaming, though gaming remains an emerging experiment rather than a core revenue driver at present.
Bundling strategies gain prominence
Another trend gaining attention is bundling in streaming markets. A recent study suggested that nearly half of streaming users in Germany now subscribe via bundled offerings (e.g. combined services plus TV).
The approach is proving to be an effective retention tool, and as Netflix continues to play in global markets, bundling and partnerships may become a more prominent part of its growth toolkit.
These strategic partnerships could provide both customer acquisition efficiencies and improved retention characteristics compared to standalone subscriptions.
The bundling trend reflects broader streaming market maturation, where customer acquisition costs have risen and retention has become increasingly challenging.
Netflix analyst rating and technical analysis
Fundamental analysts rate Netflix as a ‘buy’ and have a long-term mean price target at $1,355.22, around 11% above the current share price (as of 13/10/2025).
Netflix LSEG Data & Analytics chart
Netflix has a TipRanks Smart Score of ‘6 neutral’ and a ‘buy’ rating.
Netflix TipRanks Smart Score chart
The Netflix share price, up around 37% year-to-date, has been range trading since August but found support marginally below its August low in early October at $1,134.00.
Netflix daily candlestick chart
A rise above last week’s high at $1,247 and, more importantly the September peak at $1,267.10, is needed for the company’s June record high at $1,341.15 to be back in sight.
While the August-to-October lows at $1,144.71-to-$1,134.00 hold, the long-term uptrend is deemed to remain intact. Failure there may lead to the May low at $1,102.93 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,101.25 to be revisited, though.
Another potential downside target in this scenario would be the February peak at $1,064.50.
Investment considerations for streaming leader
Netflix's next earnings will likely be judged less on raw additions of new users and more on how effectively it is converting engagement into revenue - particularly via ad monetisation and content return on investment (ROI).
- Research Netflix's business model evolution, advertising tier development, and content strategy to understand the transformation from subscriber growth to engagement monetisation.
- Consider how streaming market competition, content costs, and advertising effectiveness might affect Netflix's performance.
- Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
- Search for 'Netflix Inc' or its ticker 'NFLX' on our trading platform or app.
- Implement appropriate risk management given technology stock volatility around earnings announcements.
Spread betting and CFD trading provide flexible approaches for trading Netflix around earnings.
For longer-term investors, share dealing offers direct ownership in the streaming leader.
A strong performance would feature revenue growth ahead of expectations, rising margins, and evidence that the ad tier can scale without undermining subscription value.
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