Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY rally as Brent crude weighs on support

​​​Macro update

Yen falls to its weakest level in four decades: The dollar climbed to ¥162.84, its highest level since 1986, despite investors remaining alert to the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities ahead of Thursday's US employment report.

Dollar strengthens as Treasury yields climb: A sharp overnight rise in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by almost nine basis points, supported the greenback, pushing the euro down 0.11% to $1.1408 and sterling 0.2% lower to $1.32369.

Markets increase expectations for further Fed tightening: Futures imply a 33% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month and a 67%-88% chance of an increase in September, with investors closely watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank's annual forum in Portugal.

Asian equities deliver a mixed performance as AI demand remains in focus: Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6% by midday, led by semiconductor stocks including Taiyo Yuden and Sumco, while South Korea's KOSPI slipped 0.9% despite record growth in semiconductor exports.

Oil prices edge higher as US-Iran negotiations remain stalled: Brent crude rose 0.45% to $73.28 a barrel after Tehran said it would meet international mediators rather than US officials in Doha, while US crude inventories fell by 6.1 million barrels last week.

Gold remains under pressure as risk appetite improves: Spot gold eased 0.7% to $3,977 an ounce, extending the weakness seen during the second quarter as investors continued to favour risk assets over traditional safe havens.

Nasdaq 100 resumes ascent

The Nasdaq 100 kicked off another rally this week and closed its island gap on Tuesday by rising to 30,328. If overcome, the 2-to-22 June highs at 30,587-to-30,670 may be revisited, ahead of its 30,762 record high.

Potential slips may find support between the 9, 12 and 25 June highs at 29,843-to-29,734.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 26 June low at 28,891

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9 June low at 28,197

Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart

USD/JPY trades in 40-year high

USD/JPY continues its advance towards its November 1986 peak at ¥165.00.

Minor support may be spotted between the 18-to-29 June highs at ¥161.98-to-¥161.81 and the May-to-July uptrend line at ¥161.79. While it underpins, the steep post-Bank of Japan May currency intervention advance is expected to continue.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the May-to-July uptrend line at ¥161.79

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 3 June low at ¥159.37

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

Brent crude slips towards June low

Brent Crude remains under pressure and is seen sliding towards its 26 June $71.87 low, a fall through which would likely push the late January high at $70.47 to the fore. Together with the 11 February high at $69.49 it may offer support.

Resistance above Tuesday's $74.75 high can be seen around the 18 June low at $76.38 and along the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.42.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 30 June $74.75 high

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 22 June $81.13 high, targeting the $70 region

Brent crude daily candlestick chart