Nasdaq 100, USD/JPY rallies pause as Brent crude slips to three-month low

​​​Macro update

Brent crude extends its decline as peace hopes improve the supply outlook: Further details of the interim US-Iran agreement suggest sanctions on Iranian oil exports could be eased and the Straits of Hormuz, which handles around one-fifth of global crude and LNG shipments, could eventually reopen, although the timing of a full recovery in flows remains uncertain.

Dow reaches a second consecutive record high as technology stocks retreat: The Dow Jones closed at a fresh record of 51,999, while the S&P 500 fell 0.57% and the Nasdaq declined 1.15%, pressured by a 5.7% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index as investors rotated into financial and industrial stocks.

Wall Street futures edge higher while European futures weaken: US equity futures traded modestly higher, whereas European futures slipped 0.2% as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain at 3.50%-3.75%.

Dollar holds steady ahead of the Federal Reserve decision: Markets continue to debate whether Kevin Warsh will adopt a more dovish tone aligned with President Trump's preferences or reinforce expectations for tighter policy, with traders currently pricing around a 43% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase in December.

Nikkei advances as AI-related stocks lead gains: Japanese equities moved higher, supported by strength in artificial intelligence-linked shares, with chip equipment manufacturer Lasertec surging 13.7%, while Taiwan's benchmark index fell 1% after a 1.7% decline in TSMC.

UK inflation remains broadly stable in May: Headline consumer price inflation was unchanged from the previous month, while core inflation accelerated but by less than economists had anticipated, offering some relief on underlying price pressures.

Nasdaq 100 comes off this week's high

The Nasdaq 100 retraced lower from this week's high at 30,587 and came close to revisiting support found around recent highs at 29,805-to-29,679. While this area holds, the odds favour new record highs being seen.

A slip through the mid-May 29,679 high may close the gap with the 12 June high at 29,734

Short-term outlook: bullish while above 28,197

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9 June low at 28,197 

Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart

USD/JPY still above the ¥160.00 mark

USD/JPY continues to range trade near last week's six week high at ¥160.60, made within the ¥160.46-to-¥160.72 resistance area. It consists of the April-to-May highs.

Potential support below the May-to-June uptrend line at ¥160.06 may be spotted around the mid-to-late April and late May ¥159.86-to-¥159.65 highs.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 11 June ¥159.55 low

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 3 June low at ¥159.37​

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

Brent crude continues to slide

The price of Brent Crude is fast approaching its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.01 per barrel, below which lies the early March low at $75.56 which also remains in sight. Other potential downside targets are the late February $73.43-to-$72.04 lows.

Minor resistance may be spotted around the 10 March low at $79.74.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 11 June $94.44 high

Medium-term outlook: bearish now that the 17 April $84.20 low has been slipped through, targeting the $70 region

Brent crude daily candlestick chart