Nasdaq 100 slips further while USD/JPY, Brent crude rise

​​​Macro update

Oil prices jump as Middle East tensions escalate: Brent crude rose more than 3% to $76.54 a barrel after renewed US airstrikes on Iran and the reimposition of sanctions on Iranian crude exports fuelled concerns that the fragile ceasefire could unravel, with global inventories already depleted following months of conflict.

Semiconductor stocks retreat as AI optimism fades: Chipmakers came under renewed selling pressure across Asia and the US after Samsung Electronics' strong earnings failed to meet elevated market expectations, with Micron falling 4.7%, Sandisk dropping 7.3% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declining 4.65%.

South Korea's KOSPI enters bear market territory: The index fell 5%, leaving it more than 20% below last month's peak, although it remains around 70% higher for the year as investors continued to take profits in AI-related stocks.

Treasury yields rise on renewed inflation concerns: US 10-year Treasury yields climbed around three basis points to a one-month high of 4.565%, while 30-year yields moved above 5% as higher oil prices reinforced fears of persistent inflation.

Gold edges higher ahead of the Fed minutes: Spot gold gained 0.6% to $4,128.28 an ounce, recovering from a near one-week low as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, with markets increasing the probability of a September rate hike to above 63%.

Dollar strengthens on safe-haven demand: The US dollar advanced to a one-week high, pushing the euro back to just above $1.14 and lifting USD/JPY beyond 162, increasing speculation that Japanese authorities may respond with currency intervention.

Nasdaq 100 nears support

The Nasdaq 100's slide from last week's 30,329 high has taken the index close to its 26 June low at 28,891, a fall through which may lead to the 12-to-19 May lows at 28,628-to-28,567 being revisited. Further down lies another potential downside target at the 9 June 28,197 trough.

Minor resistance above this week's 29,426-to-29,554 price gap sits between the mid-May and 25 June highs at 29,679-to-29,844.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 6 July high at 29,848

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a bullish undertone while trading above the 9 June low at 28,197

Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart

USD/JPY trades in 40-year high

USD/JPY continues to rise from last week's ¥160.48 low towards its early July 40-year high at ¥162.84. If bettered, the November 1986 peak at ¥165.00 will likely be next in line.

Minor support sits around the 18-to-25 June highs at ¥161.95-to-¥161.81 and may be spotted along the May-to-July uptrend line at ¥160.92. While it, last week's low and the late April high at ¥160.72-to-¥160.48 hold, the medium-term uptrend remains intact.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 3 July low at ¥160.48

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 3 June low at ¥159.37

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

Brent crude recovers from early July low

Brent Crude found and interim low at its early July $70.22 per barrel trough from which it is bouncing back towards its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.56. Around it the recent advance may peter out.

In case of the recent bounce extending, the 22 June high at $81.13 may represent the next upside target.

Minor support lies at the 30 June $74.75 high, at the 3 July $72.51 high and the 26 June $71.88 low. A slip through the $70.22 early July low would likely push the 11 February high at $69.49 to the fore.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 6 July low at $71.09

Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the 22 June $81.13 high

Brent crude daily candlestick chart