Nasdaq 100 nears support as USD/JPY rises and Brent crude drops 

​​​Macro update

Oil prices remain under pressure near four-month lows: Brent crude settled around $77.00 a barrel on Tuesday and extended its decline on Wednesday as supertankers resumed transiting the Strait of Hormuz, although analysts cautioned that mines, port damage and shipping congestion could delay a full recovery in traffic flows.

Asian equities trade without clear direction: MSCI's Asia-Pacific index fluctuated between gains and losses before edging 0.4% higher, with South Korean stocks rebounding 3.5% after Tuesday's 10% sell-off, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.4% and Taiwan's market declined 1.9%.

Rising Fed tightening expectations weigh on technology shares: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 7.9% overnight amid concerns over debt-funded AI investment and tighter financial conditions, with markets now assigning a 36% probability to a July rate hike, up from just 8.5% a week ago.

Dollar reaches a 13-month high: The dollar index climbed to 101.51, its strongest level since May 2025, supported by safe-haven demand linked to the technology-led sell-off and increasing expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, while the euro weakened to around $1.1360.

Yen remains close to multi-decade lows: USD/JPY traded at 161.67, near levels last seen in 1986, prompting renewed warnings from Japanese officials as Bank of Japan policymakers called for a faster pace of rate increases towards a more neutral policy setting.

Gold retreats as higher yields reduce its appeal: Spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,064.01 an ounce, touching its lowest level in almost two weeks as rising expectations for higher interest rates weighed on demand for non-yielding assets.

Nasdaq 100 falls towards support

The Nasdaq 100's sharp sell-off has taken it towards its March-to-June uptrend line at 29,284 which may offer at least short-term support from where part of this week's price gap between 29,748 and 30,194 may get filled.

A slip through and daily chart close below the uptrend line at 29,284 may lead to the 5 June low at 28,930 being revisited. Further down lies the current June trough at 28,197.

Short-term outlook: neutral while above the 9 June low at 28,197 but below the 22 June high at 30,642 

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9 June low at 28,197

Nasdaq 100 daily candelstick chart

USD/JPY remains bid

USD/JPY continues its surge towards its 18-to-22 June highs at ¥161.81-to-¥161.93 and the July 2024 peak at ¥161.95. Were these levels to be exceeded, the possibility of the ¥170.00 region being reached may significantly increase.

Support may be found along the May-to-June uptrend line at ¥160.95 and the late April high at ¥160.72.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 11 June ¥159.55 low

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 3 June low at ¥159.37

USD/JPY daily candlestick chart

Brent crude remains under pressure

The price of Brent Crude is now trading below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.28 and has slipped through its early March low at $75.56 with the late February $73.43-to-$72.04 lows being in sight.

Minor resistance may be spotted around the 10 March low at $79.74.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 22 June $81.13 high

Medium-term outlook: bearish, targeting the $70 region while below the 3 June high at $98.15

Brent crude daily candlestick chart