Nasdaq 100 keels over as EUR/USD grinds higher and WTI nears major support
Technical analysis of the Nasdaq 100 as it keels over while EUR/USD grinds higher and WTI nears major support.
Macro update
US equities edge lower:
Wall Street closed modestly in the red as investors trimmed risk ahead of a heavy slate of delayed jobs, inflation and retail sales data, with the Nasdaq 100 underperforming amid renewed pressure on technology stocks.
Fed uncertainty lingers:
Markets continue to price additional US rate cuts in 2026, but positioning turned more cautious amid mixed signals from policymakers and speculation over opposition to Kevin Hassett as a potential next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair.
Data vacuum remains a headwind:
The lack of timely payrolls and inflation data due to the government shutdown has left investors reliant on secondary indicators, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance ahead of the October and November jobs reports.
Sector rotation continues in the US:
Healthcare stocks led gains, while information technology lagged, weighed down by sharp declines in names such as ServiceNow, highlighting fatigue around crowded AI-related trades.
Japan hit by tech-led selling:
The Nikkei 225 fell more than 1% as chipmakers, robotics and AI-linked stocks retreated ahead of US payrolls and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, while domestic sectors including banks and transport proved more resilient.
Asia broadly risk-off:
Asian equities declined, bitcoin slipped to two-week lows, and US and European futures softened as investors pared exposure ahead of US data and a busy week of central bank decisions, including the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB) and BoJ.
Nasdaq 100 tops out
The Nasdaq 100 is seen coming off its 25,835 current December high and revisits the 25,000 region.
If slipped through, the area between the 22 September high and 22 October as well as 7 November lows at 24,782-to-24,604 may be revisited.
Minor resistance sits around the 25,500 mark.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 10 December high at 25,835
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 21 November low at 23,854
Nasdaq 100 daily candlestick chart
EUR/USD remains bullish
EUR/USD continues to grind higher and has so far risen to $1.1769, a ten-week high. Above it beckons the 23 September high at $1.820.
Potential slips may find support around the mid-October high at $1.1728.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above $1.1615
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above $1.1615, eyeing the $1.1919 September peak
EUR/USD daily candlestick chart
WTI nears key support
WTI has once again been rejected by the $60.00 region and is about to revisit its major $55.96-to-$55.15 support zone which is expected to withstand the first test. If not, the June-to-October 2016 highs at $51.91-to-$51.64 may be next in line.
Minor resistance may be found around the 25 November low at $57.10
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 10 December high at $59.05
Medium-term outlook: bearish while below the $60.50 early December high with the April, May and October lows at $55.96-to-$55.15 being in view
WTI daily candlestick chart
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