Markets navigate geopolitical uncertainty as Iran strikes impact global trading​

​​​Oil markets surge on Middle East tensions

​Oil trading opportunities have emerged as Brent crude oil jumped 1.4% to $78.07 per barrel following overnight US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The move represents the commodity's highest levels in five months.

​The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical focal point, handling approximately 25% of global oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas supplies through its narrow 33-kilometre waterway.

​Goldman Sachs analysts warn that oil prices could temporarily spike to $110.00 per barrel should Iran successfully close this vital shipping route for a month. Historical precedent suggests regime change episodes typically drive oil prices 30% higher.

​Commodity trading strategies may need recalibrating as Iran's parliament reportedly approved attempts to close the Strait, though this requires Supreme National Security Council endorsement.

​Share markets show measured responses

​Global equity indices demonstrated resilience amid uncertainty, with MSCI's Asia-Pacific index outside Japan falling 1.0% while Chinese blue chips dipped just 0.2%. Japan's Nikkei 225 eased 0.2% despite manufacturing surveys showing sector growth returned in June.

​European futures pointed towards a cautious session, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures losing 0.4% and FTSE futures declining 0.3%. The measured response reflects uncertainty about Iran's potential retaliation rather than assumptions of immediate escalation.

​Currency and policy implications

​The US dollar strengthened 0.7% against the Japanese yen to 147.07, reflecting safe haven demand and differing energy profiles.

​Interest rate futures showed subtle shifts, with Federal Reserve (Fed) fund futures declining on concerns that sustained higher oil prices could complicate inflation dynamics. This comes as tariff impacts filter through US price data.

​Chair Jerome Powell faces congressional questioning this week where Middle East developments and their potential inflationary impact will feature prominently. Market pricing assigns slim chances for a Fed rate cut at the July 30 meeting.

​Surprisingly, gold trading saw prices edge down 0.3% to $3,357.00 per ounce, defying typical safe haven patterns and suggesting investors may be positioning for potential positive outcomes rather than prolonged conflict.

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