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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Look Ahead 29/9/23: Japan and German retail sales; Baker Hughes; Nationwide; Carnival

Japan and German retail sales figures come a day after US data suggested China continues to defy investor expectations of an economic slowdown. $100 oil looms. The UK property market swings into focus with the Nationwide report.

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(Video Transcript)

Japanese yen plunges versus the dollar

Hello, I'm Angeline Ong, and welcome to your Look Ahead to Friday, 29 September 2023. And we start in Japan with industrial production, retail sales figures and the unemployment rate as well, likely to move currency markets, especially across the Japanese yen versus the US dollar.

Just pulling that up on my screen right now, because this is quite an interesting cross given what the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) have been doing recently, and also economic data out of the US continuing to defy investor expectations of a slowdown.

US joblessness better than expected

We just had that figure out recently, showing that initial job disclaimers out of the US actually wasn't as bad as expected. Also the gross domestic product (GDP), the final print, stayed unchanged.

Meanwhile, the Japanese currency has been weakening sharply, but it's softening has been tempered by fears that authorities might intervene to prop up the currency. The 150 yen per dollar zone is seen by markets, that's where my red line is, as potentially spurring intervention from Japanese authorities, like it did last year.

Also, the other country to look out for is China, because China is out with Caixin Manufacturing and Services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data.

And from Germany, look out for retail sales and the unemployment rate. We recently had data out of Germany showing that its consumers there aren't bearing up too well to suddenly high inflation. What's also interesting is that the European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that it's not done yet in terms of raising rates to keep inflation at bay.

Tough times for UK builders, landlords

From the UK, we've got second-quarter GDP. This is the final figure, and we've also got the nationwide house price index. Many house builders are indicating or saying that the tough times still continue. And even the UK landlords, in terms of commercial space, are also having a tough time.

From the US, we've got the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and personal income and spending. And also, the Baker Hughes oil recount, which will be very interesting, given that global markets are on tenterhooks at the moment as $100 a barrel oil leans. We're not quite there yet, but we are not far.

And just checking out the US 500 for you, because just showing you where we are in terms of US equities, it's likely that for US equities anyway, we're likely to see the first quarter of losses so far this year, if the current trajectory holds.

Carnival reveals future trajectory of travel

And, last but not least, we've got third-quarter earnings from Carnival. The Miami, Florida-based company is expected to report a 55.5% rise in revenues to almost $6.7 billion from $4.3bn a year ago. This is according to Refinitiv data. The Wall Street median 12-month price target for Carnival is $17, above its closing price of $13.76, and it is currently at around $13.98.

Also key is Carnival's outlook and what it says about travel going forward, given much of the travel revenge trend has largely teetered out now. And I'd like to pronounce more market-moving news.

I'll be back on Beat the Street at 1.30pm London time to give you a heads-up to the US trading day. And IG's Jeremy Naylor will be on at 7.30am on Early Morning Call, ahead of the European market open. Follow me on Twitter @AngelineOng. This is IGTV.

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