Kingfisher enters trading update under cloud of cautious optimism​

Mixed signals ahead of crucial update

​Kingfisher enters the next trading update, pencilled in for Tuesday 23rd of September, under a cloud of cautious optimism, as past results have revealed both strengths and substantial headwinds that investors will be keen to see addressed. The UK home improvement retailer has already shown some resilience in its most recent full-year results, but the degree to which that resilience will carry forward into next week's update is uncertain.

​In its most recent fiscal year to January 2025, Kingfisher reported a 7% fall in adjusted pre-tax profit, down to £528 million, while sales slipped by about 1.5%. Much of the weakness stemmed from "big-ticket" discretionary items, and performance in its French operations was particularly poor.

​Against that backdrop, the company has outlined guidance for 2025/26 profits in the range of £480-£540 million and free cash flow between £420-£480 million. Measures to control costs, reduce inventory, and improve operational efficiency have already been underway.

​These recent trends set the stage for what investors will be watching closely in the next update, particularly whether the company's strategic initiatives are beginning to deliver measurable improvements.

UK operations provide relative strength

​In next week's trading update, attention will likely fall on how Kingfisher's UK & Ireland business is holding up, particularly under the banners of B&Q, Screwfix and TradePoint.

​Earlier reports have shown that UK operations have been more resilient than many of the continental units, benefiting from demand for seasonal and trade-oriented product lines, along with strong e-commerce momentum.

​If those trends are continuing, they may help offset softness elsewhere and provide evidence that Kingfisher's focus on trade customers and digital channels is paying dividends.

​The performance of Screwfix, which targets professional tradespeople, will be particularly important as this segment has shown greater resilience to economic pressures than the DIY consumer market.

​Continental operations face persistent headwinds

​On the other hand, signs of further weakness in France and Poland may dampen expectations. France has been a drag, reflecting weak consumer sentiment and macroeconomic pressure, and Poland has shown volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty.

​Weaker demand in certain large-ticket categories has affected both markets, with consumers deferring major home improvement projects during periods of economic uncertainty.

​Any new evidence that these headwinds are intensifying could weigh heavily on the outlook and reinforce concerns about Kingfisher's exposure to challenging European markets.

​The company's ability to navigate these regional challenges while maintaining overall group performance will be crucial for investor confidence going forward.

​Cost pressures require strategic response

​Analysts will also be focused on whether Kingfisher refines its guidance again, especially with respect to profit margins, costs, and cash flow. Government budget measures in both the UK and France have increased costs via tax, employer contributions, and regulation.

​Kingfisher has already acknowledged that these will hit retail profit by tens of millions of pounds, and how the company plans to mitigate those impacts will be important for maintaining profitability targets.

​Potential mitigation strategies include store efficiencies, supply chain adjustments, or rebalancing the mix of products toward higher-margin categories that can better absorb cost increases.

​The effectiveness of these cost control measures will be crucial for maintaining the profit guidance range and demonstrating management's ability to adapt to changing regulatory and economic conditions.

​Kingfisher analyst ratings

​According to LSEG Data & Analytics, most analysts rate Kingfisher as a ‘hold’ or a ‘sell’ with only one having a ‘strong buy’ recommendation. The mean long-term share price upside target is at around 290p, around 16% above the current share price (as of 17 September 2025).

Kingfisher LSEG Data & Analytics chart

​TipRanks has a ‘4 Neutral’ Smart Score with a ‘hold’ rating for Kingfisher.

Kingfisher TipRanks Smart Score chart

​Digital and trade strategy progress under review

​Finally, shareholders will be watching any commentary on market share gains, especially in digital channels and trade segments, which have been underlined as key strategic priorities.

​Improvements in e-commerce penetration, progress in converting ex-Homebase stores to B&Q, and expansion of trade and marketplace operations are all areas that could provide positive surprises if performance is ahead of modest expectations.

​The digital transformation has become increasingly important for retail companies seeking to compete with online specialists while leveraging their physical store networks.

​Trade customer focus represents a strategic shift toward serving professional customers who typically spend more frequently and are less sensitive to economic cycles than DIY consumers.

​Bellwether status amplifies market attention

​Kingfisher finds itself in a familiar position: under scrutiny not just for its own performance, but for what it says about the state of the consumer economy at large.

​Whether the message is one of continued resilience or a warning of tougher times ahead, the trading update will be carefully parsed across the market for insights into consumer behaviour and retail sector health.

​The home improvement sector's sensitivity to both consumer confidence and housing market activity makes Kingfisher's performance particularly valuable for understanding broader economic trends.

​Kingfisher technical analysis

​The Kingfisher share price - which year-to-date trades flat – remains in a clear downtrend since its 317.6 pence May peak and currently hovers above its 239.8p-to-236.6p support zone. It contains the 8 April, 27 January, 3 February, 24 March and 7 April lows.

​Were this support area to give way, January trough at 227.2p may be reached as well. Together with the March lows down to 221.4p it offers another support region. 

​Kingfisher weekly candlestick chart 

​For the Kingfisher share price to gain upward traction, at the very least a rise and daily chart close above the 9 September high at256.8p would need to occur. Even in such a scenario the mid-March high and June-to-August lows as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 264.6p-to-271.2p are likely to thwart any further upside attempt.

​Kingfisher daily candlestick chart 

​Only a currently unexpected bullish reversal and rise above the 22 August peak at 281.4p would re-instate medium-term bullish momentum.

​Trading considerations for home improvement exposure

​For investors considering Kingfisher ahead of the trading update, the company presents a mixed picture of defensive characteristics offset by execution and market challenges.

1. ​Research Kingfisher's strategic initiatives, market positioning, and operational efficiency programmes to understand the transformation potential.
2. ​Consider how consumer spending patterns, housing market conditions, and competitive dynamics might affect home improvement retail.
3. ​Open an account with IG by visiting our website and completing the application process.
4. ​Search for 'Kingfisher' or its ticker 'KGF' on our trading platform or app.
5. ​Consider appropriate risk management given the cyclical nature of retail stocks and their sensitivity to consumer confidence.

​Share dealing provides direct exposure to Kingfisher's transformation story for long-term investors who believe in the strategic focus on trade customers and digital channels.

​Spread betting and CFD trading offer flexible approaches for trading around earnings announcements and sector developments.

​The upcoming update will provide crucial insights into whether Kingfisher's strategic initiatives are gaining traction and how effectively the company is managing the various headwinds affecting the home improvement retail sector.​​