Greggs Q3 trading update preview: can stronger sales momentum deliver a full-year upgrade?

Greggs Q3 trading update preview: can stronger sales momentum deliver a full-year upgrade?

Greggs heads into its third-quarter trading update on 30 September with momentum building on the sales side, but investors will be looking for evidence that the UK's largest food-to-go retailer can convert that growth into stronger profits as it absorbs higher labour costs and continues to invest heavily in expanding its estate and supply chain.

The update comes after a better-than-expected first half. Greggs reported total sales of £1.10 billion for the 26 weeks to 27 June, up 7.2% year-on-year, while like-for-like sales in company-managed shops rose 2.1%. Management said it continued to outperform the wider food-to-go market, with its value proposition proving resilient in a challenging consumer environment.

Crucially, however, the board left its full-year expectations unchanged. That means the focus on 30 September will be less on whether Greggs is still growing and more on whether the pace of growth is strong enough to give management confidence of beating its existing targets.

Those looking to invest in Greggs can do so through IG Invest or our share dealing service, while traders can access the share price via spread betting or CFD trading.

A stronger first half

Greggs entered 2026 with a relatively cautious outlook after a period in which cost inflation, particularly labour costs, had put pressure on profitability.

The first half nevertheless showed signs that the business was regaining momentum. Total sales rose 7.2%, while company-managed like-for-like (LFL) sales increased 2.1%. Franchise shop LFL system sales increased 1.3%.

The improvement was helped by menu innovation, including new products such as the Chicken Roll, enhanced salad options and Iced Matcha Lattes. Greggs has increasingly broadened its offer beyond its traditional bakery products, while continuing to emphasise value at a time when consumers remain sensitive to prices.

The earlier May trading update had already shown an improvement in momentum, with LFL sales up 3.3% during the most recent 10 weeks to 9 May, compared with 2.5% for the first 19 weeks of the year.

The Q3 numbers will therefore reveal whether that acceleration has been sustained through the summer.

The consumer remains central

Greggs' performance is closely watched as a barometer of UK discretionary spending because its customers range from commuters and office workers to students and families looking for relatively inexpensive food.

Its value positioning should provide some protection when household budgets are under pressure. Rather than being a premium restaurant operator, Greggs competes on convenience, availability and affordable prices.

That has become increasingly important as UK consumers continue to face higher household costs. If Greggs can continue delivering positive like-for-like sales without relying excessively on price increases, it would suggest the brand is maintaining its appeal even as consumers remain selective.

Investors will therefore be watching the composition of sales growth. Higher transaction volumes would provide a more encouraging signal than growth driven primarily by pricing.

Can Greggs keep opening shops?

One of the most important parts of the Greggs investment case remains its ability to expand the store estate.

Greggs ended the first half with 2,773 shops after opening 34 net new locations. It expects around 100–110 net new shops during 2026 and sees potential for at least 3,500 locations across the UK over the longer term.

That represents a significant runway for growth even if the mature estate is producing relatively modest like-for-like sales growth.

The company is also experimenting with different formats to access locations where a traditional Greggs shop would not necessarily work. Its new Bitesize format is designed for smaller, high-footfall locations, and Greggs recently opened its first Bitesize shop inside a Tesco supermarket in Southwark.

The format could give Greggs another route to expand its presence without requiring a conventional high-street shop.

The company has also opened its first international travel-hub location at Tenerife South Airport, providing an early test of whether the Greggs proposition can work beyond the UK.

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Supply-chain investment is a double-edged sword

The opportunity to open hundreds of additional shops is being supported by major investment in Greggs' manufacturing and logistics infrastructure.

New distribution capacity in Derby and Kettering is designed to support the group's longer-term ambition of reaching at least 3,500 UK shops.

But the investment comes with a near-term cost.

Greggs had previously warned that incremental operating costs associated with its new Derby site would weigh more heavily on the second half of 2026. The May trading update said first-half profit should make good progress, but that these additional costs would primarily affect H2.

This is one reason why a strong Q3 sales performance does not automatically translate into a profit upgrade.

Investors will want to hear whether the new infrastructure is beginning to generate operating leverage or whether the additional costs remain a significant drag on margins.

Costs remain the biggest threat

Labour is particularly important for Greggs because of its large store estate and workforce. Wage inflation and higher employment costs can quickly erode the benefit of sales growth.

The company had previously forecast around 3% cost inflation on a like-for-like basis for 2026.

The ability to control those costs while maintaining Greggs' reputation for value is therefore crucial.

There is a delicate balance between passing higher costs on to customers through price increases and protecting the company's value proposition. Excessive price rises could undermine transaction growth, while absorbing too much inflation could squeeze margins.

The Q3 update should provide an indication of where that balance currently sits.

Delivery, digital and grocery provide additional growth

Greggs is also expanding the ways in which customers can buy its products.

The Greggs app, Click + Collect and delivery partnerships with Just Eat and Uber Eats are becoming increasingly important elements of the business. These channels allow Greggs to generate additional sales from its existing estate rather than relying entirely on opening new shops.

The grocery channel is another potential source of incremental growth, allowing Greggs products to reach consumers outside its own shops.

The broader strategy is effectively to make Greggs available wherever customers want to buy food: on the high street, at transport hubs, in supermarkets, online and through delivery.

The Q3 update could therefore provide useful detail on how much growth is coming from the existing estate versus new shops and alternative channels.

Share price recovery raises the stakes

Greggs' shares – up around 9% year-to-date - have recovered from their lows, but the stock remains well below its previous peak after a difficult period for investors.

Greggs weekly candlestick chart

The market's focus has shifted from concerns about whether the long-running growth story had stalled towards the question of whether the company can deliver a sustained recovery in sales and earnings.

Analysts are divided when it comes to rating Greggs. The mean long-term price target sits at 1,742p, around 5% below the current share price (as of 23 September 2026).  

TipRanks has a Smart Score of ‘6 Neutral’ but a ‘buy’ rating for Greggs.

For those monitoring Greggs' share price and the wider UK consumer sector, our share dealing platform gives you the tools to invest directly in shares at competitive prices.

Technical analysis of the Greggs share price

The Gregg’s share price closed its late July price gap in mid-September by dipping to 1,706p before rallying and leaving its August-to-September downtrend channel.

Greggs daily candlestick chart

For the bulls to fully regain control a rise and daily chart close above the 24 August high at 1,894p would need to be seen. In this scenario the July peak at 2,046p may be back in the frame.

While the 16 September low at 1,706p underpins, the medium-term uptrend is deemed to be intact. Were it to be fallen through, though, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1,670p may be reached instead.

Can Greggs surprise on the upside?

Greggs' latest results suggest that the underlying customer proposition remains resilient. Sales are growing, the store estate is expanding and management continues to see substantial room for further UK expansion.

The challenge is that Greggs is simultaneously investing heavily for that future growth while operating in an environment of elevated labour and operating costs.

That makes the 30 September update something of a balancing act.

Strong LFL sales would demonstrate that the brand is continuing to attract customers despite pressure on household finances. Continued progress with new stores would reinforce the longer-term growth story. But investors will also need to see evidence that the benefits of that growth are eventually translating into stronger margins and profits.

For now, management's full-year expectations remain unchanged following the first-half results.

The question on 30 September is whether Greggs can give investors a reason to believe that the second half will be better than expected — and potentially reopen the debate about when sales growth can once again translate into meaningful earnings growth.

How to invest in Greggs shares

1. Do your research on Greggs, the Q3 trading update on 30 September and the key metrics to watch
2. Download IG Invest or open a share dealing account with us
3. Search for Greggs (GRG) in our platform or app
4. Choose the number of shares or value of money you'd like to invest
5. Place your trade