Gold drops back below $4,000 – what's next for the precious metal?

​​​Gold retreats from record highs

​Gold has slipped back below $4,000.00 per ounce after briefly breaching that psychological barrier. The pullback follows a spectacular rally that saw the precious metal gain over 50% this year.

​Profit-taking appears to be driving the decline. After such a sharp run higher, some consolidation was inevitable as traders lock in gains from the record-breaking advance.

HSBC recently raised its 2025 average gold price target to $3,355.00, up from $3,215.00. The bank's 2026 forecast sits at $3,950.00, suggesting analysts still see further upside despite the current retreat.

​The move lower doesn't necessarily signal the end of the bull run. Pullbacks are normal and healthy after strong advances, often providing opportunities for new buyers to enter the market.

​Support levels come into focus

​The key question now is where support emerges. After such a strong rally, the metal was overdue a pullback.

​For the moment the momentum still appears skewed to the downside. Pullbacks rarely stop in a day. Instead, a volatile consolidation phase would appear first, as sellers attempt to continue the drop and buyers enter as dip buying hopes rise.

​For now, the price is still in the first stage. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA) currently sits at $3860.00. This may provide support, and would represent a drop of around 12% from the record high.

Spot gold daily candlestick chart

​Dollar strength weighs on gold

​A stronger US dollar has contributed to gold's decline. The two typically move inversely, with dollar strength making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

​Currency moves can significantly amplify or dampen gold's price swings. Recent dollar strength on the back of resilient US economic data has created headwinds for the precious metal.

​If the dollar continues to strengthen, gold could face further pressure. Conversely, any renewed dollar weakness would likely provide support for the precious metal.

​Fed policy path remains crucial

​The Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy trajectory represents the biggest influence on gold's near-term direction. If the Fed delivers fewer rate cuts than markets currently expect, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold increases.

​Real interest rates matter more than nominal rates for gold. The metal tends to struggle when inflation-adjusted yields rise, as investors can earn attractive real returns from bonds and other interest-bearing assets.

​Recent economic data suggesting the US economy remains resilient has pushed back expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts. This shift in expectations has contributed to gold's retreat from record levels.

​However, if inflation proves stickier than expected and forces the Fed to keep policy accommodative, gold could benefit. Lower real yields and a weaker dollar would support a resumption of the rally.

​Structural drivers remain intact

​Despite the pullback, the fundamental story for gold remains compelling. Central bank buying continues at elevated levels as monetary authorities diversify away from dollar-heavy reserves.

​This trend accelerated following geopolitical developments in recent years. Countries across Asia, the Middle East and emerging markets continue adding to gold holdings as insurance against currency and geopolitical risks.

​The scale of central bank purchases provides a floor under the market. Unlike speculative flows that can reverse quickly, official sector buying represents long-term strategic positioning that isn't sensitive to short-term price moves.

​Reserve diversification looks set to continue. As long as geopolitical tensions persist and questions about fiscal sustainability remain, central banks will likely maintain their appetite for gold as a store of value.

​Safe-haven demand persists

​Geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin gold's safe-haven status. Trade tensions, regional conflicts and concerns about the global economic outlook all support demand for assets perceived as insurance against instability.

​Fiscal stress in major economies adds another dimension to the safe-haven bid. Concerns about sovereign debt sustainability that emerged during recent political developments tend to benefit gold.

​Investors increasingly view gold as protection not just against geopolitical shocks but also against policy uncertainty. With fiscal trajectories looking unsustainable in many developed economies, the metal offers an alternative to currency-denominated assets.

​The safe-haven premium built into gold prices may persist for some time. Until geopolitical tensions ease and fiscal paths become more credible, this structural support should remain intact.

​Inflation concerns haven't vanished

​Inflation remains elevated despite recent progress in bringing it down from peak levels. If price pressures re-accelerate, gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge would come back into focus.

​Monetary policy uncertainty adds to gold's appeal. Markets remain divided on whether central banks have truly conquered inflation or whether further waves of price increases lie ahead.

​Fiscal policy continues to run hot in many economies. Large deficits and rising debt levels create concerns about debt monetisation that historically support gold demand.

​The relationship between inflation and gold isn't always straightforward in the short term. But over longer periods, gold has maintained its purchasing power whilst fiat currencies have lost value to inflation.

​Where does gold go from here?

​If inflation stays elevated and geopolitics remain unsettled, gold could eventually push towards $4,300.00-4,500.00. This scenario assumes the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than currently priced and the dollar weakens.

​However, if rates stay higher for longer, a more extended period of consolidation looks likely. Gold might trade sideways for several months, building a base before attempting another leg higher.

​The key is not to fight the trend. Gold remains in a powerful uptrend underpinned by genuine structural demand, even if short-term pullbacks like the current one emerge along the way.

​Trading opportunities in both directions

​Gold's retreat from $4,000.00 has created opportunities for traders in both directions. Some may see the pullback as a chance to buy the dip, whilst others might look to profit from further weakness.

​Spread betting and CFD trading allow flexible positioning on gold. These products let you trade both rising and falling prices, useful given the current uncertainty about near-term direction.

​Gold mining shares offer leveraged exposure to the metal's price. Producers benefit from operating leverage as gold prices rise, though they carry company-specific risks beyond the commodity price.

​Steps to trade gold's pullback

​Here's how to position yourself for gold's next move:

1. ​Research gold's key drivers including Fed policy, inflation data and geopolitical developments
2. ​Decide whether you want to trade short-term price action or invest for longer-term structural trends
3. ​Open an account with IG to access gold and related markets
4. ​Search for gold on our trading platform or mobile app
5. ​Place your trade with appropriate risk management, using stop losses to protect against unexpected reversals

​Gold's retreat below $4,000.00 represents a test of the bull market that has dominated 2025. Whilst some consolidation after such a strong rally appears healthy, a higher low has yet to form.  This will determine whether this is merely a pause or something more significant. The fundamental drivers supporting the precious metal remain intact, even as near-term headwinds from a stronger dollar and higher-for-longer rate expectations create pressure.