FTSE 100 recovers as GBP/USD consolidates and gold price eyes record high
Technical analysis of the FTSE 100 as GBP/USD consolidates and gold price eyes record high.
Macro update
Data deluge follows Fed cut:
A heavy slate of delayed US economic releases this week should finally provide clearer signals on growth and inflation after the 43-day government shutdown disrupted the data flow.
Jobs and inflation take centre stage:
November payrolls are due on Tuesday and consumer price index (CPI) on Thursday, with soft hiring expected and inflation still above target - both key for assessing the next phase of Fed policy.
Policy uncertainty persists:
The Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered another rate cut last week but struck a cautious tone on further easing, leaving markets highly sensitive to any downside surprises in labour-market data.
Tech wobble saps momentum:
US equities retreated from record highs as disappointing results from Oracle and Broadcom weighed on the AI-heavy technology sector.
Europe and Asia face fresh headwinds:
Renewed stress in China’s property sector dragged on Asian equities, while Japan saw a sharp, tech-led sell-off amid valuation concerns and expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.
Year-end dynamics come into view:
With the S&P 500 up 16% in 2025, thinner holiday liquidity and profit-taking could amplify volatility if incoming data fails to support a risk-on narrative.
FTSE 100 resumes its ascent
The FTSE 100 lost upside momentum on Friday of last week and dropped to 9,633 before recovering on Monday morning.
Minor resistance may now be found around the 9,740 region up to the 9,744 early December peak and at Friday's 9,763 high.
A rise above this high would likely engage the 9,788-to-9,792 resistance area. It comprises the late October-to-early November highs.
A slip through Friday's 9,633 low would probably push the 9,605 region to the forefront. It is where the 14 and 17 November lows were made.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 10 December low at 9,608
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 9,423 November low
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart
GBP/USD consolidates after rise
GBP/USD's November-to-December rise seems to have temporarily run out of steam at last week's $1.3438 high with it sideways trading in low volatility since then.
The 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.3341 may offer support.
A rise above the $1.3438 may engage the $1.3500 region
Short-term outlook: bullish while above $1.3288
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the early December low at $1.3180
GBP/USD daily candlestick chart
Gold gunning for record high
The gold price is on track for its fifth straight day of gains whilst heading for its $4,381.44 October record high.
Good support sits between the mid-November-to-early December highs at $4,264.70-to-$4,245.20.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above $4,169.99, targeting $4,381.44
Medium-term outlook: bullish, eyes the October all-time high at $4,381.44 and above while the early December low at $4,163.81 underpins
Gold daily candlestick chart
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