FTSE 100, GBP/USD and gold price remain bid 

Macro Update

Asian markets fall on tech jitters: Regional equities weakened as traders braced for Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday, with the Nikkei down 0.5%, South Korean stocks off 2.8%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index sliding 1.3%.

Alibaba weighs on Hong Kong: Shares in the e-commerce and cloud giant plunged as much as 10.5% after the company launched an HK$80bn share placement at an 8.4% discount to fund AI investment, reviving worries about returns from China's intense AI spending push.

Samsung's payout plan underwhelms: The stock dropped over 8% after a record $79bn capital return programme fell short of investors' hopes for a bigger slice of AI-driven cash gains.

Oil retreats before Iran sanctions news: Brent fell over 1% to around $93 as traders locked in profits ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's unveiling of what Washington billed as "the greatest financial offensive ever marshalled" against Iran, even after both benchmarks gained more than 5% last week.

Gold pushes higher as dollar softens: Spot gold rose 1% to a three-month high above $4,650 an ounce, up 15% in August alone—on track to be its biggest monthly gain ever if sustained through month-end.

Fed policy and inflation in focus: Markets priced in a 40% chance of a September rate hike ahead of Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday and this week's core PCE data, with July inflation forecasts holding steady at 3.3%.

FTSE 100 recovers further still

The FTSE 100 continues to bounce back from last week's 10,684 low and is about to test minor resistance at the 5 August 10,837 low. If exceeded, the major resistance zone between the February-to-August highs at 10,936-to-10,990 may be revisited.

Good support lies between the April-to-early July highs and last week's low at 10,745-to-10,684.

Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 7 August high at 10,960

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 24 July low at 10,578

FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart

GBP/USD probes May peak

Last Friday GBP/USD briefly exceeded its May peak at $1.3658, and in doing so hit a sixth-month high at $1.3676. The area between these levels currently acts as resistance but were it to be overcome, the 11 February high at $1.3712 may be reached as well as the September 2025 high at $1.3726. Further up lies the July 2025 peak at $1.3789.

Minor support may now be spotted around the mid-April high at $1.3599.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 18 August low at $1.3520

Medium-term outlook: neutral with a strong bullish undertone while trading within its $1.3140-to-$1.3676 March-to-August boundaries

GBP/USD daily candlestick chart

Gold ploughs ahead

Spot gold's sharp August rally is ongoing with the precious metal trading in 3-month highs and flirting with the 6 February low at $4,655.23. Above it beckon the 50% retracement of the January-to-June decline and the May peak at $4,772.16-to-$4,773.57. Another potential target zone consists of the February $4,842.60 low and the $4,891.54 April peak.

Minor support below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around $4,575 may be spotted around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,516.48.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the mid-August $4,311.04 low

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the mid-August $4,311.04 trough

Gold daily candlestick chart