Bitcoin is digging into its $111,982.45-to-$113,510.23 resistance area which may cap ahead of Friday’s options expiry.
Bitcoin's recent pullback may have been exacerbated by “max pain” positioning in options markets. With a $17.5 billion options expiry looming on Friday, the “max pain” price - the strike level that causes the greatest collective loss for option holders - is positioned near $107,000.00. That could act as a magnet if selling pressure intensifies.
Some analysts argue that the recent decline could offer a compelling entry point for the rest of 2025, especially if broader conditions improve.
Looking forward, a few key themes are likely to determine Bitcoin’s next moves. First, central bank and macro policy announcements will be critical: any indication of further easing or dovish pivoting could reignite momentum. Second, institutional and whale demand will matter more than ever; if large capital continues flowing in during dips, it limits how far downside can go. Finally, technical and derivatives levels - options max pain zones, key support ranges, and open interest clusters - must be monitored closely, since they often dictate short-term inflection points in such a leveraged, sentiment-sensitive market.
Bitcoin is digging into the lower boundary of its $111,982.45-to-$113,510.23 resistance zone which may cap this week. If so, the June peak and 4 September low at $110,617.03-to-$109,385.95 may be revisited. Further down lie last week's low at $108,709.05 and also the early September low at $107,286.25.
As long as Bitcoin remains above last week's $108,709.05 low and managed to break through the $111,982.45-to-$113,510.23 resistance area, recent bullish momentum may be maintained.
In this case the 24 September high at $114,042.32 may be reached as well as the mid-September low at $114,398.76.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.