Bitcoin stays sidelined as ETF outflows and macro uncertainty cap upside

​​​Bitcoin stays sidelined

​Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has remained at the centre of market attention as investors weigh easing monetary policy against persistent signs of fatigue across risk assets.

​Early December opened with sharp volatility, as Bitcoin briefly slid into the mid-$80,000.00 region following a wave of liquidations and thin liquidity conditions.

​That drop reflected a broader risk-off move across financial markets, driven by uncertainty over interest-rate expectations, stretched positioning and continued deleveraging in speculative assets.

​Since then, Bitcoin has staged a tentative recovery. Prices rebounded towards the mid- $90,000.00 area before easing back again, finding support around the $88,000.00 mark as selling pressure moderated.

​Some investors have interpreted this stabilisation as evidence that near-term fear may be fading, particularly after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a widely anticipated rate cut last week, helping to steady sentiment across equities and other risk-sensitive markets. Even so, Bitcoin’s response has been measured rather than explosive, highlighting that macro tailwinds alone are no longer sufficient to drive a sustained rally.

​Institutional flows have played a key role in shaping the recent narrative. Over the past month, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have continued to experience net outflows, with investors pulling capital from some of the largest products. These withdrawals have weighed on liquidity and reinforced the perception that institutional demand has softened compared with earlier in the year.

​At the same time, the actions and commentary of large corporate holders have added to market unease. Strategy, one of the most prominent corporate owners of Bitcoin, has signalled that it may be prepared to sell part of its holdings under certain conditions, a notable shift from its long-standing buy-and-hold stance. The prospect of even limited distribution from such a large holder has prompted questions about whether further supply could emerge if prices fail to recover convincingly.

​Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin’s longer-term supporters argue that the current pullback represents consolidation rather than the start of a deeper downturn. They point to Bitcoin’s resilience above key support zones, ongoing network security and its role as a hedge against monetary debasement over longer horizons.

​For some investors, the recent dip has begun to look like a potential entry point, provided macroeconomic conditions stabilise and liquidity improves across global markets.

​For now, Bitcoin appears caught between competing forces. On one side are easing monetary policy, intermittent risk-on sentiment and long-term conviction in Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.

​On the other are ETF outflows, cautious institutional positioning and lingering uncertainty about global growth and financial conditions.

​The result has been a choppy, range-bound market in which rallies struggle to gain traction and pullbacks attract selective buying rather than panic selling.

​As the year draws towards its close, Bitcoin’s near-term direction will likely hinge on whether confidence returns to risk assets more broadly and whether institutional flows stabilise.

​A decisive break higher would require renewed demand and a clear improvement in liquidity conditions, while renewed downside could emerge if macro sentiment deteriorates again or if large holders choose to reduce exposure.

​Until then, Bitcoin looks set to continue grinding sideways, reflecting a market that is cautious, watchful and increasingly selective about where it allocates capital.

​Bitcoin bullish case:

​Bitcoin remains supported by the $88,000.00 region and may still rise towards its early December high at $94,213.50 while Sunday's low at $87,603.72 underpins on a daily chart closing basis.

​A daily chart close above the $94,213.50 level may lead to the psychological $100,000.00 region being retested.

​For the bulls to be back in control, however, the 11 November high at $107,461.75 would need to be exceeded.

​Bitcoin bearish case:

​While the 3 December high at $94,213.50 isn't bettered on a daily chart closing basis, downside pressure may persist with the $80,000.00 zone remaining in view, were a fall through Sunday's low at $87,603.72 occur.

​Short-term outlook: neutral while below $94,213.50 but above $87,603.72

​Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 3 December high at $94,213.50 and above its $80,619.71 late November low

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart