Bitcoin nears May high as ETF inflows and softer Fed outlook revive $100,000 hopes

Bitcoin surges 5% towards May high

Bitcoin has staged another powerful advance, surging more than 5% on Thursday to move above its late August $81,473.87 high and within striking distance of its May $82,814.03 peak. Renewed institutional demand, falling bond yields and a less hawkish Federal Reserve outlook revived appetite for the world's largest cryptocurrency.

The move marks a significant acceleration from the consolidation seen towards the end of August and early September. Bitcoin had retreated from its late-August high slightly below $81,500 and was trading close to $77,300 before Thursday's rally took it to around $82,300 intraday.

The next major test is now the May high at $82,814.03. A sustained break above that resistance level could significantly improve Bitcoin's technical outlook and potentially open the way towards the January high at $97,913.08 and the psychological $100,000 region. 

Bitcoin accelerates higher after late-August consolidation

Bitcoin's latest advance builds on a strong - around 25% - rally that began in the middle of August and reached its highest level since May as a weaker US dollar, Treasury bond-buyback plans and renewed interest in the so-called debasement trade encouraged investors to increase exposure.

Bitcoin subsequently struggled to maintain those gains and slipped back towards $76,250 at the beginning of September.

That pullback now looks increasingly like a consolidation phase rather than the start of another major downtrend.

Thursday's over 5% surge has propelled Bitcoin to the May $82,035.16-to-$82,814.03 resistance zone.

Bitcoin daily candlestick chart

ETF flows return to the spotlight

The latest rally has also been accompanied by a renewed improvement in institutional demand.

August was particularly strong for US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds attracted approximately $3.52 billion of net inflows during August, their strongest monthly performance of 2026, compared with only about $172 million in July. The ETFs recorded inflows on 16 of 21 trading sessions during the month.

The strongest period came in the second half of August, when Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive sessions of net inflows between 17 and 27 August.

The buying accelerated during the week beginning 17 August, with individual daily inflows reaching $297.6 million on 17 August, $517.2 million on 19 August and a sizeable $606.3 million on 20 August.

The improvement was significant because it followed the heavy institutional selling that dominated the second quarter.

Bitcoin ETFs had suffered billions of dollars of redemptions during May and June, but August's $3.52 billion inflow substantially reduced the year's cumulative net outflow.

September starts more unevenly

ETF demand has become more mixed since the beginning of September, although the latest price rally suggests institutional flows remain an important source of support.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $236.5 million of net outflows on 1 September, reversing the $216.7 million of inflows recorded on the previous trading day.

However, the funds returned to positive territory on 2 September, attracting around $101.15 million, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading the inflows at approximately $115.45 million.

Then, on 3 September, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a much stronger $731 million of net inflows, according to SoSoValue data, with BlackRock's IBIT attracting approximately $454 million and ARKB receiving around $138 million.

That latest surge in ETF demand is particularly notable because it coincided with Bitcoin's 5% price rally.

The combination of strong spot ETF inflows and a sharp increase in the cryptocurrency's price suggests institutional buying may once again be reinforcing the underlying market rather than merely following the move higher.

Softer Fed expectations provide another catalyst

ETF demand is not the only factor behind Thursday's rally.

The immediate macroeconomic catalyst was Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments indicating that he favours keeping interest rates unchanged this month if inflation continues to moderate.

His comments reduced expectations of an imminent rate increase and helped push bond yields lower, providing a boost to risk assets including Bitcoin.

Markets are now effectively waiting for Friday's non-farm payrolls and next week's US inflation data to determine whether the Fed can afford to leave rates unchanged.

This matters enormously for Bitcoin.

The cryptocurrency's major sell-off earlier in 2026 was driven partly by the repricing of monetary policy expectations towards higher interest rates. If inflation continues to moderate, the opposite process could now take place, with lower rate expectations, softer yields and improved liquidity providing a more supportive environment for digital assets.

The debasement trade remains important

The latest move also reinforces Bitcoin's growing sensitivity to government debt, bond yields and the US dollar.

The rally that began in August was partly triggered by the US Treasury's decision to increase purchases of longer-dated government bonds. The move helped ease pressure on long-term yields and weakened the dollar, reviving investor interest in assets regarded as potential hedges against currency debasement.

That narrative has remained an important component of Bitcoin's recent recovery.

Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it particularly attractive to investors concerned about the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies, while rising government debt and fiscal deficits have strengthened those concerns.

The latest decline in bond yields therefore provides a double benefit: it reduces the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets while simultaneously easing the financial conditions that had previously weighed on Bitcoin.

Can Bitcoin finally break the May high?

The technical picture has improved considerably following the latest rally.

Bitcoin has now recovered above several important moving averages and broken through a succession of lower highs that had characterised the earlier bearish trend. The cryptocurrency has moved above its 21-, 55-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, while the 21- and 30-day simple moving averages have formed bullish "golden cross" patterns.

The major obstacle is now the 6 May high at $82,814.03.This is a particularly important resistance level because it represents the peak reached during the previous major recovery.

A decisive daily close above the 6 May high would therefore signal that Bitcoin has finally overcome the resistance that halted its previous recovery and potentially confirm a medium-term bullish reversal.

Bitcoin Weekly candlestick chart

A break above $82,814.03 could put $100,000 back on the radar

Should Bitcoin clear the May high decisively, attention would likely turn first towards the minor psychological $90,000 region.

Above that, the 2026 high at $97,913.08 comes into view, while the psychologically important $100,000 mark would become an increasingly realistic target.

This would represent a substantial recovery from the $57,748.80 low reached earlier in the year.

Bitcoin still needs to prove that it can hold its latest gains

The recent history of failed breakouts means a move above roughly $83,000 followed by a rapid reversal would represent a significant warning for bulls. A sustained period of ETF outflows could similarly undermine the rally by removing one of the market's most important sources of structural demand.

For now, however, the backdrop is considerably more constructive than it was earlier in the summer.

Strong ETF inflows, falling bond yields, softer expectations for Fed tightening and renewed demand for the debasement trade have combined to push Bitcoin back towards its May high.

The next few trading sessions could therefore prove decisive. A sustained break above $82,814.03 would put the $90,000 region firmly in sight and, for the first time in several months, bring $100,000 back onto Bitcoin's roadmap.

Bitcoin bullish scenario

Provided Bitcoin manages to hold above its 23 August low at $75,556.35, the early May highs at $82,035.16-to-$82,814.03 should continue to be pummelled. If exceeded, the December 2025 lows at $83,871.20-to-$84,445.35 would be next in line, followed by the 25 January low at $86,013.03, minor psychological resistance around $90,000, the January peak at $97,913.08 and the major psychological $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin bearish scenario

Only a sharp bearish reversal and fall through the 23 August low at $75,556.35 may lead to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-to-June decline around $73,250 being revisited.

Short-term outlook: bullish while above the 2 September low at $76,251.41

Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 23 August low at $75,556.35