August déjà vu? Why this year's volatility risks look familiar yet different​

​​​Last August's perfect storm revisited

​Last year's August selloff wasn't triggered by trade tensions, but rather a toxic combination of tech earnings disappointment, Japanese yen strength forcing carry trade unwinding, and crucially, a hotter-than-expected inflation print that derailed the disinflation narrative.

​The catalyst came when core consumer price index (CPI) for July 2024 rose 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) versus the 0.2% consensus expectation. While seemingly modest, this upside surprise hit markets at precisely the wrong moment – just as Big Tech was rolling over and summer positioning had become dangerously stretched.

​It wasn't the magnitude of the inflation surprise that mattered most, but the timing. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials were already sounding cautious about rate cuts, and the CPI print provided ammunition for hawks who wanted to pump the brakes on easing expectations.

​The yen's concurrent strength created additional chaos by forcing the unwinding of popular carry trades, amplifying selling pressure across risk assets. This confluence of factors – tech weakness, currency disruption, and inflation concerns – created the perfect storm for August's violent market correction.

​This year's setup shows key differences

​While markets are again bracing for potential August turbulence, the fundamental setup looks markedly different from last year's conditions. The most obvious change is that tariffs, rather than earnings disappointments, have emerged as the primary headline risk facing investors.

​Tech earnings have shown remarkable resilience this time around. Meta and Microsoft both delivered beats that exceeded expectations, while even Amazon's share price decline came despite strong top-line growth and positive guidance. This represents a stark contrast to last year's broad-based tech sector disappointment.

​Currency dynamics have also shifted dramatically. The US dollar is displaying strength rather than weakness, which removes the immediate risk of forced carry trade unwinding that plagued markets twelve months ago. This fundamental difference eliminates one of the key transmission mechanisms that amplified last August's selloff.

​However, these differences shouldn't mask the underlying similarities. The vulnerability to data-driven repricing remains as acute as ever, with markets still highly sensitive to economic surprises that could reshape Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations.

​Familiar vulnerabilities beneath the surface

​Despite the changed headline risks, several concerning parallels with last year's August setup are becoming apparent. Most notably, inflation concerns are once again creeping back onto investors' radar following recent economic data releases.

​The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) print delivered a touch of unwelcome heat, raising questions about whether the disinflation trend remains firmly on track. If the August consumer price index (CPI) release shows persistent stickiness in services inflation, it could challenge the prevailing narrative of imminent Fed easing just as effectively as last year's surprise.

​September rate cut odds have already begun fading, now sitting at approximately 40% compared to much higher probabilities earlier in the summer. This leaves substantial room for further repricing if economic data continues to surprise to the upside.

​The pattern feels familiar – markets positioned for one outcome while economic reality potentially points in a different direction. This mismatch between expectations and data creates the kind of instability that can quickly escalate into broader market stress.

​Tariff uncertainty replaces tech disappointment

​While the specific triggers have evolved, the underlying mechanism for potential market disruption remains intact. Tariffs have emerged as this year's equivalent of last August's tech earnings disappointment – a source of uncertainty that keeps investors on edge.

​The trade policy rhetoric has introduced macro uncertainty at a particularly sensitive time, just ahead of critical US economic data releases. Markets have largely priced in the tariff risk, but implementation details remain murky enough to generate ongoing volatility.

​Unlike last year's earnings-driven selloff, which was company-specific before spreading broader, tariff concerns carry systemic implications from the outset. This could potentially create a more immediate and widespread market impact if tensions escalate unexpectedly.

​However, the telegraphed nature of current trade policy discussions may also provide some insulation. Markets have had months to digest potential scenarios, unlike the sudden earnings disappointments that caught investors off-guard last August.

​Data dependency creates familiar risks

​The most concerning parallel between this year and last lies in markets' continued extreme sensitivity to economic data surprises. Just as July 2024's CPI print triggered a violent repricing of Fed expectations, upcoming releases carry similar disruptive potential.

​Today's payrolls report and the August CPI data represent critical inflection points for market sentiment. A strong employment number or upside inflation surprise could push September cut odds even lower, mirroring last year's August reset of monetary policy expectations.

​Trading online during such data-sensitive periods requires heightened awareness of potential volatility around key releases. The market's reaction function to economic surprises remains as violent as ever.

​The Fed's communication strategy will prove crucial in managing this transition. Any hawkish rhetoric that reinforces higher-for-longer rate expectations could quickly compound data-driven market stress, creating the kind of feedback loops that defined last August's turmoil.

​Tech resilience provides crucial buffer

​One key factor working in markets' favour this time is the technology sector's surprising resilience compared to last year's performance. Rather than leading markets lower, major tech companies have provided crucial support through better-than-expected earnings results.

​This resilience stems partly from improved operational execution and partly from more realistic market expectations heading into earnings season. Unlike last August, when sky-high hopes set the stage for disappointment, this year's results have generally cleared more modest hurdles.

​The sector's performance has helped insulate broader indices from some of the tariff-related uncertainty. How to trade shares in technology companies requires recognition that fundamentals appear more robust than during last year's correction.

​However, this support shouldn't be taken for granted. Technology shares remain vulnerable to any sharp shift in interest rate expectations, and their high valuations leave little room for future disappointment should circumstances change.

​Currency dynamics offer different risks 

​While the absence of yen strength eliminates the carry trade unwind risk that plagued last August, dollar strength brings its own set of challenges for global markets. A persistently strong greenback can pressure emerging market assets and commodities, creating alternative channels for financial stress.

​The dollar's rally has been partly driven by tariff expectations and partly by resilient US economic data. This creates a feedback loop where strong data supports the currency while potentially delaying Fed easing, which in turn supports the dollar further.

​Forex trading strategies need to account for this changed dynamic. Unlike last year's yen-driven volatility, this year's currency pressures may build more gradually but could prove equally disruptive to global financial stability.

​The key difference is timing and transmission mechanisms. Last year's yen moves were sudden and forced immediate position adjustments. This year's dollar strength may create more gradual but potentially more persistent pressures on global markets.

​Positioning for different but familiar risks

​While the specific triggers have evolved, the underlying message for traders remains consistent: prepare for volatility while avoiding panic reactions. The path of least resistance still points toward higher volatility if macro surprises begin to compound.

​Trading for beginners should focus on understanding these changing dynamics rather than assuming this year will simply repeat last year's pattern. Each market cycle brings unique characteristics that require adapted strategies.

​Risk management becomes paramount during such transitional periods. Using appropriate position sizes, maintaining adequate liquidity buffers, and having clear exit strategies can help navigate whatever form this year's August volatility ultimately takes.

​The importance of staying informed about key data releases cannot be overstated. Access to real-time information through a reliable trading platform becomes essential when markets are primed for data-driven repricing events.

​August CPI: the critical test approaches

​The August consumer price index (CPI) release represents perhaps the most important single data point for determining whether this August will echo last year's volatility. Markets are acutely aware of the parallel timing with last year's inflation surprise that triggered widespread selling.

​Any upside surprise in core services inflation could quickly reignite concerns about the Fed's easing timeline. With September cut odds already faded to 40%, there's limited cushion for disappointment before rate expectations undergo another significant repricing.

​The setup feels uncomfortably similar to twelve months ago – markets positioned for one outcome while remaining vulnerable to data that could quickly reshape the narrative. This binary risk/reward profile creates the potential for violent moves in either direction.

​Traders should prepare for heightened volatility around the CPI release, regardless of the actual outcome. Even an in-line print could generate significant market moves if it fails to provide the reassurance that nervous investors are seeking.

​Bottom line: familiar vulnerability, different triggers

​August 2025 may not deliver an exact replay of last year's selloff, but the underlying vulnerability to data-driven market repricing remains as acute as ever. Tariffs have replaced tech disappointments as the headline concern, but the fundamental sensitivity to economic surprises persists.

​The absence of carry trade unwind risks and more resilient tech earnings provide some insulation against the most extreme scenarios. However, the combination of tariff uncertainty and potential inflation surprises still creates meaningful downside risks for markets.

​Success in navigating this environment requires recognising both the differences and similarities with previous periods of August volatility. Preparation, rather than prediction, remains the most prudent approach for managing whatever market conditions ultimately emerge.

​How to prepare for potential August market volatility:

1. ​Research current economic data trends and focus on the 12th August CPI release
2. ​Choose whether you want to trade short-term volatility or invest for longer-term opportunities
3. ​Open a trading account with robust risk management tools
4. ​Search for the markets you want to trade using our comprehensive platform
5. ​Place your trades with appropriate stop-losses and position sizing for the current environment

​Consider testing your strategies with a demo account before deploying real capital during potentially volatile market conditions.