Alibaba Hong Kong IPO: Implications for potential and existing investors

Demand for the Chinese e-commerce site’s upcoming Hong Kong listing is through the roof, and there are several things investors – on both sides of the Pacific – should know ahead of trading day.

Chinese e-commerce platform Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. could potentially raise up to US$12.9 billion at its upcoming listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX).

A share price of HK$176 (US$22.49) for institutional investors has been hinted at, sources close to the matter have revealed. This update will mean the company, which has an estimated market capitalisation of US$483 billion, is now looking to raise an estimated US$12.9 billion, representing a drop of US$0.96 billion from initial projections.

An over-allotment option, called a ‘“greenshoe’”, if exercised, could lift the final amount to US$13.4 billion.

If the institutional price is realised, this would mean the company is offering corporate clients a 2.8% discount from its November 18 closing price on the New York bourse.

It was previously revealed that a total of 500 million shares would be up for sale, of which 12.5 million would be allocated to private investors at a proposed cap of HK$188 per share (US$24).

Shares oversubscribed despite recession

As Hong Kong continues to battle its socio-political issues, the Alibaba listing remains surprising to many industry observers, and a welcomed move for others.

With street protests at its most violent last week, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) also fell five percentage points in the same time span, the second worst performance globally among all indexes for the week ending November 15.

The government also announced that the city has entered what some analysts referred to as a ‘deep’ recession, with GDP contracting 3.2% for the third quarter – the city’s weakest quarter since 2008.

Still, despite ongoing tensions and a receding market, current demand for the Alibaba shares do indicate a level of confidence typically seen by the more reputable companies.

In fact, so confident are investors in the offering that demand for the new batch of equity has now surpassed the planned supply, with shares reportedly oversubscribed. Bloomberg also reported that Alibaba could potentially usurp another China conglomerate Tencent Holdings Ltd as the largest listed corporation in Hong Kong, when trading ends next Tuesday.

Source: Bloomberg

This fervour for the Hong Kong stocks is not entirely surprising, especially considering Alibaba’s growth trajectory over the years. Since its IPO in September 2014 on the New York Stock Exchange, Alibaba equity has been a steady winner for investors, achieving triple digit growth rates. Ahead of this year’s Singles’ Day shopping extravaganza (which ultimately generated over US$30 billion in sales revenue), US shares hit a US$184.23 buy point, close to its historical peak of US$208.00 achieved on June 15, 2018.

The impending flotation, the biggest in over a decade on the Hong Kong bourse, is also expected to reverse these trends and bring the Hong Kong market back to healthier ground. As it stands, the HSI rebounded a decent 1.6% to close Tuesday’s (November 20) market at a healthy 27,093.8.

Implications of Hong Kong listing for existing US shareholders

With interest going strong for the Hong Kong IPO, expected to start trading on November 26, one question that is looming large on the minds of both prospective and existing shareholders is how their investment portfolios and strategies will be affected.

According to IG Asia Market Strategist Jingyi Pan, with the Hong Kong IPO being Alibaba’s second listing, a “significant rally” is seemingly “unlikely”.

“Investors who had wanted to participate in the company’s growth would have had the access through the NYSE. That said, this certainly opens up the avenue for investors in Asia, particularly Chinese investors through the Hong Kong stock connect, who may not have had the means previously,” Pan noted.

“A slight boost to prices should not be ruled out here and that may be the catalyst to provide prices with a break on the upside through the ascending triangle resistance,” she added.

Certainly, the Hong Kong listing will give more Chinese nationals the opportunity to invest in a homegrown company, and widen the pool of local and regional investors, all of which are in line with the company’s roadmap.

It also supports another theory out there that should the US-China trade war worsen and disrupt relations on both sides, then the Hong Kong market could serve as a ‘back up plan’ to soften any potential collapse from the other side of the Pacific.

For existing US shareholders, it should be noted that the influx of Hong Kong-listed shares could also lead to a value dilution of about 2.8%, since each Alibaba American Depository Share represents eight ordinary shares that can be exchanged with the Hong Kong stocks.

Overall, however, the overwhelming demand for the Hong Kong shares is expected to benefit investors in both markets, at least in the medium haul.

Practise trading Hong Kong stocks with an IG demo account now


This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Seize a share opportunity today

Go long or short on thousands of international stocks.

  • Increase your market exposure with leverage
  • Get spreads from just 0.1% on major global shares
  • Trade CFDs straight into order books with direct market access

See opportunity on a stock?

Don’t miss your chance. Try a risk-free trade in your demo account, and find out whether your hunch could have paid off.

  • Log in to your demo
  • Try a risk-free trade
  • See whether your hunch pays off

See opportunity on a stock?

Don’t miss your chance. Upgrade to a live account to take advantage.

  • Trade a wide range of popular global stocks
  • Analyse and deal seamlessly on fast, intuitive charts
  • See and react to breaking news in-platform, when it matters

See opportunity on a stock?

Don’t miss your chance. Log in to take advantage while conditions prevail.

Live prices on most popular markets

  • Forex
  • Shares
  • Indices
Bid
Offer
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Bid
Offer
Bid
Offer
-
-
China 300
-
-

Prices above are subject to our website terms and agreements. Prices are indicative only. All shares prices are delayed by at least 15 mins.

Plan your trading week

Get the week’s market-moving news sent directly to your inbox every Sunday. The Week Ahead gives you a full calendar of upcoming economic events, as well as commentary from our expert analysts on the key markets to watch.


For more info on how we might use your data, see our privacy notice and access policy and privacy webpage.

You might be interested in…

Find out what charges your trades could incur with our transparent fee structure.

Discover why so many clients choose us, and what makes us a world-leading provider of spread betting and CFDs.

Stay on top of upcoming market-moving events with our customisable economic calendar.

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.