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Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

​Where to next for the FTSE 100?: Year-end and 2025 forecast​​

​​​Technical analysis FTSE 100 year-end and 2025 forecast, including key levels to watch out for​.​

FTSE 100 Source: Adobe images

​​​UK autumn budget and higher global yields weigh on FTSE 100

​The UK autumn budget with its £40bn tax increase, £28 billion annual borrowing and £70 billion spending boost for 2026-27 has led to a rise in UK borrowing costs. Both the 10- and 30-year Gilt yields rallied to one-year highs this week and dampened demand for stocks.

​The FTSE 100's fall through its 8,150 September low following Wednesday’s UK autumn budget has also taken the index to below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 8,100 with the late July low at 8,056, the tentative April-to-October uptrend line at 8,055, February 2023 peak at 8,047 and the psychological 8,000 mark representing a possible downside target zone.

​FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart

FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView.com
FTSE 100 daily candlestick chart Source: TradingView.com

​A possibly steeper decline may take the FTSE 100 all the way down to its August low at 7,916.

​Year-end 2024 target 8,200-to-8,300

​Provide the FTSE 100 August trough at 7,916 underpins on a weekly chart closing basis, the FTSE 100 is expected to gradually head back up towards the 8,200-to-8,300 region as it enters the seasonally usually positive end to the year. The major August-to-October sideways trading phase between 8,169 and 8,414 is not expected to be exceeded this year, however, but may be overcome in 2025.

​FTSE 100 weekly candlestick chart

FTSE 100 weekly candlestick chart Source: TradingView.com
FTSE 100 weekly candlestick chart Source: TradingView.com

​Minor resistance at the bottom of the wide 8,169-to-8,414 zone can be spotted at September-to-early October lows at 8,169-to-8,184.

​For the bulls to be back in control a rise and daily chart close above the mid-October high at 8,395 would need to be seen. Such a bullish reversal currently looks highly unlikely, though.

​What would a fall through the August low mean?

​In case of the August low at 7,916 giving way, a significant long-term top would be formed with the July 2023-to-March 2024 highs at 7,785-to-7,687 being targeted in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.

​2025 forecast

​As long as no fall through the August low at 7,916 occurs, the 500+ point wide April-to-October sideways trading range, is expected to be re-integrated as early as the first quarter of 2025.

​Towards the middle part of next year another attempt at reaching the 8,500 mark could be made and, if successful, the 8,700-to-8,800 region be reached by end of 2025 as investors believe that the UK might have started to turn the corner and begins growing more substantially again following the autumn budget.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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